The short-term technical picture is positive

Prices are soaring.

30-year yields have been leading the way down.

10-year yields have been more resistant, but the picture is still bullish.

5-year yields are the most sluggish of the three reviewed here because they are feeling the heat of the Fed's short-term rate hikes. This picture is still developing.

The long-term picture is generally positive

Increasingly, but tentatively, bullish.

Very bullish.

Bullish.

Arguable.

And, most importantly, ...

So go bond yields, so go long-term mortgage rates, keeping the housing boom alive.

1-yr Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARM) rates are more closely tied to the short-term rates determined by the Fed. But, as shown in our essay of 1/27/05 ("Still ARMed"), ARM rates will not likely rise point-for-point until the spread between these rates closes.

How low will they go?