The good news is:
• At the rate of decline for the year so far, the end must be near.
The negatives
The major indices were down 6% - 8% last week. There is not much more I can say.
The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator, the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level.
Heading for the bottom in a hurry.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and OTC HL Ratio, in red, has been calculated from NASDAQ data.
Similar pattern, but with a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
The positives
By the time this is over all of the weak hands will have been shaken out.
Nothing suggests we have reached that point.
Seasonality
Next Friday is the 3rd Friday of the month, but since the 1st Friday was a holiday, I am showing the report which includes the 5 trading days prior to the 2nd Friday of January during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis for that period.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2014 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2014 There are summaries for both the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.
Average returns for the coming week have been positive by all measures.
Report for the week before the 2nd Friday of January.
The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.
Daily returns from Monday to 2nd Friday.
| OTC Presidential Year 4 | ||||||
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thur | Fri | Totals |
| 1964-4 | 0.14% | 0.41% | 0.38% | 0.19% | 0.14% | 1.26% |
| 1968-4 | 0.80% | -0.06% | -0.20% | 0.29% | 0.38% | 1.22% |
| 1972-4 | 0.04% | 0.47% | 0.22% | -0.41% | 0.27% | 0.60% |
| 1976-4 | 0.90% | 1.92% | 0.90% | 0.81% | 0.81% | 5.33% |
| 1980-4 | 0.41% | 1.39% | 0.61% | 1.00% | 0.49% | 3.89% |
| 1984-4 | -0.22% | 0.13% | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.27% | -0.36% |
| 1988-4 | -0.67% | -1.26% | 0.21% | 0.47% | 1.77% | 0.52% |
| 1992-4 | 0.89% | 0.73% | 1.33% | 1.55% | -0.66% | 3.85% |
| 1996-4 | -0.11% | -3.25% | -0.86% | 2.13% | -0.31% | -2.40% |
| Avg | 0.06% | -0.45% | 0.26% | 1.03% | 0.20% | 1.10% |
| 2000-4 | 4.30% | -3.17% | -1.82% | 2.78% | 2.71% | 4.81% |
| 2004-4 | 2.03% | 0.49% | 0.99% | 1.09% | -0.63% | 3.95% |
| 2008-4 | -0.21% | -2.36% | 1.39% | 0.56% | -1.95% | -2.56% |
| 2012-4 | 0.09% | 0.97% | 0.31% | 0.51% | -0.51% | 1.36% |
| Avg | 1.55% | -1.02% | 0.22% | 1.24% | -0.10% | 1.89% |
| OTC summary for Presidential Year 4 1964 - 2012 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.64% | -0.28% | 0.27% | 0.84% | 0.17% | 1.65% |
| Win% | 69% | 62% | 77% | 85% | 54% | 77% |
| OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2015 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.32% | -0.10% | -0.01% | 0.50% | 0.18% | 0.89% |
| Win% | 64% | 53% | 53% | 74% | 68% | 64% |
| SPX Presidential Year 4 | ||||||
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thur | Fri | Totals |
| 1956-4 | -1.40% | -0.79% | 0.50% | 0.83% | -0.18% | -1.03% |
| 1960-4 | -1.23% | -0.61% | -0.56% | 0.55% | -0.03% | -1.89% |
| 1964-4 | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.41% | 0.37% | -0.05% | 0.98% |
| 1968-4 | 0.71% | -0.12% | 0.02% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.81% |
| 1972-4 | -0.14% | 0.32% | -0.06% | -0.58% | 0.39% | -0.07% |
| 1976-4 | 1.85% | 1.03% | 0.45% | 0.67% | 0.39% | 4.39% |
| Avg | 0.28% | 0.13% | 0.05% | 0.22% | 0.16% | 0.84% |
| 1980-4 | 0.27% | 2.00% | 0.09% | 0.77% | 0.03% | 3.17% |
| 1984-4 | -0.22% | -0.56% | -0.10% | -0.02% | -0.44% | -1.34% |
| 1988-4 | 1.68% | -0.84% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 2.51% | 3.54% |
| 1992-4 | -0.33% | -0.13% | 0.17% | -0.12% | -0.60% | -1.01% |
| 1996-4 | 0.28% | -1.46% | -1.80% | 0.70% | -0.15% | -2.42% |
| Avg | 0.34% | -0.20% | -0.30% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.39% |
| 2000-4 | 1.12% | -1.30% | -0.44% | 1.21% | 1.07% | 1.66% |
| 2004-4 | 1.24% | 0.13% | 0.24% | 0.50% | -0.89% | 1.21% |
| 2008-4 | 0.32% | -1.84% | 1.36% | 0.79% | -1.36% | -0.72% |
| 2012-4 | 0.23% | 0.89% | 0.03% | 0.23% | -0.49% | 0.88% |
| Avg | 0.73% | -0.53% | 0.30% | 0.68% | -0.42% | 0.76% |
| SPX summary for Presidential Year 4 1956 - 2012 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.31% | -0.22% | 0.03% | 0.40% | 0.02% | 0.54% |
| Win% | 67% | 40% | 67% | 80% | 40% | 53% |
| SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2015 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.08% | -0.18% | -0.21% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| Win% | 56% | 40% | 44% | 73% | 52% | 52% |
Money supply (M2) & Yield curve
The charts were provided by Gordon Harms. Money supply growth stabilized to increase.
The next chart shows the yields of 2yr – 30yr Treasuries over the past 25+ years. An inverted yield curve has always been a reliable indicator of an impending recession. There is no suggestion of that in the chart below, on the other hand, interest rates have never been this low or subjected to this much blatant manipulation.
Presidential Year 4 (PY4)
Since 1963, over all years, the OTC has been up 73% of the time with an average annual gain of 13.3%. In the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle the OTC has been up 77% time with an average annual gain of 8.3% making it the 3rd best year of the 4 year cycle. The best ever 4th year for the OTC was 1980 (+33.7%), the worst 2008 (-40.5%).
The chart below has been calculated by averaging the daily percentage change of the OTC in a pattern similar to what I use to calculate the monthly charts. The monthly charts are then strung together to make an average year. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
In the chart below the blue line shows the average of the OTC over all years since 1963 while the black line shows the average during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle over the same period.
Since 1928, over all years, the SPX has been up 67% of the time with an average annual gain of 7.5%. In the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle the SPX has been up 73% time with an average gain of 7.0% making it the 2nd best year of the 4 year cycle. The best ever 4th year for the SPX was 1928 (+37.5%), the worst 2008 (-38.5%).
The chart below is similar to the one above except it shows the daily average performance over all years for the SPX in red and the performance for the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle in black.
Since 1979, over all years, the Russell 2000 (R2K) has been up 69% of the time with an average annual gain of 11.3%. In the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle the R2K has been up 67% time with an average gain of 7.8% making it the 3rd best year of the 4 year cycle. The best ever 4th year for the R2K was 1980 (+33.8%), the worst 2008 (-34.8%).
The chart below is similar to those above except it shows the daily performance over all years of the R2K in magenta and the performance during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle in black.
Since 1885, over all years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been up 65% of the time with an average annual gain of 7.1%. In the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle the DJIA has been up 69% time with an average gain of 6.9% making it the 2nd best year of the 4 year cycle. The best ever 4th year for the DJIA was 1928 (+48.2%), the worst 2008 (-33.8%).
The chart below is similar to those above except it shows the daily performance over all years of the DJIA in January in Magenta and the performance during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle in black.
Conclusion
The market is in free fall. There could be a spectacular bounce at any time, but, there has been no sign of a bottom.
I expect the major averages to be lower on Friday January 15 than they were on Friday January 8.
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Good Luck,
YTD W 1 / L 0 / T 0
