Michael Ashton

E-PIPHANY

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• If Liquidity is Your Sword, Keep Swinging

  Published 29 April 2015 | viewed 0 times

  I am not one of those people who believe that if the Fed is dramatically easing, you simply must own equities. I must admit, charts…

• Whither (Wither?) Profits

  Published 22 April 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Surprisingly, markets are treading water here. The dollar, interest rates, and stocks are all oscillating in a narrow range. In some ways, this is surprising.…

• Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

  Published 17 April 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Below you can find a recap and extension of my post-CPI tweets. You can follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my…

• Two Quick Items

  Published 31 March 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Two relatively quick items that I want to address today; they have been in my 'to do' box for a while. Negative Rates One of…

• Lots to Worry About but Nothing to Fear?

  Published 26 March 2015 | viewed 0 times

  As we tick towards the end of the quarter, the news feeds are starting to look like they occasionally do when we are having a…

• Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

  Published 24 March 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Below you can find a recap and extension of my post-CPI tweets. You can follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my…

• That's Not How Any of This Works

  Published 18 March 2015 | viewed 0 times

  I wonder how many times the Fed needs to be more dovish than expected before investors realize that this is a dovish Fed? It may…

• Just One Thing

  Published 13 March 2015 | viewed 0 times

  The defining characteristics of the markets these days seem to include: Central bank liquidity matters; central government mistakes do not. Central bank liquidity matters; economic…

• Summary (and Extension!) of My Post-CPI Tweets

  Published 26 February 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Below you can find a recap and extension of my post-CPI tweets. You can follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my…

• The Answer is No

  Published 18 February 2015 | viewed 0 times

  What a shock! The Federal Reserve as currently constituted is dovish! It has really amazed me in recent months to see the great confidence exuded…

• Downside for Stocks, But Also for Fed Expectations

  Published 12 February 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Retail Sales figures today were weak. Retail Sales ex-Auto and Gas (I usually just look ex-auto, but then they look really, really bad because of…

• Winter Is Coming

  Published 11 February 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Sometimes being a value investor, amid overvalued (and ever more so) markets, feels a bit like being a Stark in Westeros. The analogy will be…

• The F9 Problem

  Published 03 February 2015 | viewed 0 times

  All around the world, investors and traders and even fancy hedge-fund guys are dealing with something that denizens of the inflation-linked bond world have been…

• Crazy Spot Curves - Orderly Forwards

  Published 30 January 2015 | viewed 0 times

  This is an interesting chart I think. It shows the spot CPI swap curve (that is, expected 1y inflation, expected 2y compounded inflation, expected 3y…

• Money, Commodities, Balls, and How Much Deflation is Enough?

  Published 23 January 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Money: How Much Deflation is Enough? Once again, we see that the cure for all of the world's ills is quantitative easing. Since there is…

• Swiss Jeez

  Published 22 January 2015 | viewed 0 times

  The focus over the last few days has clearly been central bank follies. In just the last week: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) abruptly stopped…

• Summary (and Extension!) of My Post-CPI Tweets

  Published 16 January 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Below is a summary and extension of my post-CPI tweets. You can follow me @inflation_guy: Core CPI unchanged - which is amazing. I can't wait…

• Little Update on Commodity Re-Thunk

  Published 14 January 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Reading some of the comments people have posted in various places, I thought it would make sense to spend the time to re-create the projected-index…

• Commodities Re-Thunk

  Published 14 January 2015 | viewed 0 times

  I want to talk about commodities today. To be sure, I have talked a lot about commodities over the last year. Below I reprise one…

• Winter is Coming ... But Not Here, Not Yet

  Published 13 January 2015 | viewed 0 times

  We began 2014 with the perspective that the economy was limping along, barely surviving. A recession looked possible simply because the expansion was long in…