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Michael Ashton

Michael Ashton


Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

  • Plight of the Fed Model

    Published 08 July 2014 | viewed 0 times

    A very common refrain among stock market bulls these days - and an objection some made to my remarks yesterday that markets are still not…

  • Dog Bites Man: Markets Still Not Making Sense

    Published 07 July 2014 | viewed 0 times

    The Employment number these days is sometimes less interesting than the response of the markets to the number over the ensuing few days. That may…

  • Inflate Your Way to Victory

    Published 30 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

    In keeping with the topic of the month, I present this chart. I really wanted to make the x-axis the compounded inflation rate since the…

  • Awareness of Inflation, But No Fear Yet

    Published 24 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

    Suddenly, there is a bunch of talk about inflation. From analysts like Grant Williams to media outlets like MarketWatch and the Wall Street Journal (to…

  • The Fed's 'Own Goal'

    Published 18 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

    As we wait to see whether the Fed slants its statement ever-so-slightly to the hawkish side or ever-so-slightly to the dovish side (not to mention…

  • Core and Median CPI Converging

    Published 17 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

    As expected, and as I've been saying for a long time, (a) median inflation is rising and now is at 2.3% y/y, the highest level…

  • Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

    Published 17 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

    Following is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can follow me @inflation_guy! Well, I hate to say I told you so, but...increase in core…

  • The Dollar and Commodities - Just Friends

    Published 11 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

    The recent, aggressive ECB ease, combined with some mild Fed growls about increasing rates "at some point," ought to be good news for the dollar…

  • They Came to Play

    Published 05 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

    I am generally reluctant to call anything a "game changer," because in a complex global economy with intricately interdependent markets it takes something truly special…

  • Growling Dogs Sometimes Bite

    Published 04 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

    I think it's really interesting that suddenly, we are hearing from both hawks and doves on the Federal Reserve that the Fed is starting to…

  • Worried About Not Being Worried

    Published 02 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

    I am beginning to worry about my own complacency. As a person who has been a participant in the fixed-income markets for a long time,…

  • The Boredom Always Ends

    Published 27 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

    After fairly boring trading through the first half of the month, the equity market has shot to new highs over the last few sessions. Could…

  • Hot Button Issue: Rant Warning

    Published 20 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

    We all have our hot button issues. It will not surprise you, probably, to learn that mine involves inflation. For the rant which follows, I…

  • Deflation, Indeed!

    Published 15 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

    Today's post-CPI update is later than usual (normally, on CPI day I 'tweet' my impressions as I have them). A prospect meeting got in the…

  • Evaluating the New Kid

    Published 07 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

    Part of the assessment of a new Federal Reserve Chairman always involves trying to figure out if the new person says particular things because they…

  • Patience is a Pain

    Published 05 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

    If it seems that the frequency of my posts has diminished of late, it is no illusion. There are many reasons for that, many business-related,…

  • Global cc: On a Note About Inflation Confusions

    Published 02 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

    I haven't written in a couple of weeks - a combination of quiet markets, and a lack of intersection between stuff that's interesting to write…

  • A Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

    Published 15 April 2014 | viewed 0 times

    Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can follow me @inflation_guy, or see the twitter scroll on the right side of the page…

  • Seasonal Adjustment and Springtime Inflation

    Published 14 April 2014 | viewed 0 times

    On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report the CPI index (along with endless other data) for March. Currently, the consensus estimate calls for…

  • As They Do, Not As They Say

    Published 10 April 2014 | viewed 0 times

    Over the past week or two we have seen and heard from the Fed (in the minutes released on Wednesday), the ECB (after their April…