Michael Ashton

E-PIPHANY

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

Contact Contributor

• Plight of the Fed Model

  Published 08 July 2014 | viewed 0 times

  A very common refrain among stock market bulls these days - and an objection some made to my remarks yesterday that markets are still not…

• Dog Bites Man: Markets Still Not Making Sense

  Published 07 July 2014 | viewed 0 times

  The Employment number these days is sometimes less interesting than the response of the markets to the number over the ensuing few days. That may…

• Inflate Your Way to Victory

  Published 30 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

  In keeping with the topic of the month, I present this chart. I really wanted to make the x-axis the compounded inflation rate since the…

• Awareness of Inflation, But No Fear Yet

  Published 24 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Suddenly, there is a bunch of talk about inflation. From analysts like Grant Williams to media outlets like MarketWatch and the Wall Street Journal (to…

• The Fed's 'Own Goal'

  Published 18 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

  As we wait to see whether the Fed slants its statement ever-so-slightly to the hawkish side or ever-so-slightly to the dovish side (not to mention…

• Core and Median CPI Converging

  Published 17 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

  As expected, and as I've been saying for a long time, (a) median inflation is rising and now is at 2.3% y/y, the highest level…

• Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

  Published 17 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Following is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can follow me @inflation_guy! Well, I hate to say I told you so, but...increase in core…

• The Dollar and Commodities - Just Friends

  Published 11 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

  The recent, aggressive ECB ease, combined with some mild Fed growls about increasing rates "at some point," ought to be good news for the dollar…

• They Came to Play

  Published 05 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

  I am generally reluctant to call anything a "game changer," because in a complex global economy with intricately interdependent markets it takes something truly special…

• Growling Dogs Sometimes Bite

  Published 04 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

  I think it's really interesting that suddenly, we are hearing from both hawks and doves on the Federal Reserve that the Fed is starting to…

• Worried About Not Being Worried

  Published 02 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

  I am beginning to worry about my own complacency. As a person who has been a participant in the fixed-income markets for a long time,…

• The Boredom Always Ends

  Published 27 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

  After fairly boring trading through the first half of the month, the equity market has shot to new highs over the last few sessions. Could…

• Hot Button Issue: Rant Warning

  Published 20 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

  We all have our hot button issues. It will not surprise you, probably, to learn that mine involves inflation. For the rant which follows, I…

• Deflation, Indeed!

  Published 15 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Today's post-CPI update is later than usual (normally, on CPI day I 'tweet' my impressions as I have them). A prospect meeting got in the…

• Evaluating the New Kid

  Published 07 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Part of the assessment of a new Federal Reserve Chairman always involves trying to figure out if the new person says particular things because they…

• Patience is a Pain

  Published 05 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

  If it seems that the frequency of my posts has diminished of late, it is no illusion. There are many reasons for that, many business-related,…

• Global cc: On a Note About Inflation Confusions

  Published 02 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

  I haven't written in a couple of weeks - a combination of quiet markets, and a lack of intersection between stuff that's interesting to write…

• A Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

  Published 15 April 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can follow me @inflation_guy, or see the twitter scroll on the right side of the page…

• Seasonal Adjustment and Springtime Inflation

  Published 14 April 2014 | viewed 0 times

  On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report the CPI index (along with endless other data) for March. Currently, the consensus estimate calls for…

• As They Do, Not As They Say

  Published 10 April 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Over the past week or two we have seen and heard from the Fed (in the minutes released on Wednesday), the ECB (after their April…