Mike Shedlock

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• Trade Deficit Steepens Led by China: Top Six Offenders

  Published 07 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  The International trade deficit widened to $48.5 billion matching the Econoday consensus. Don't give the economists too much credit because the preliminary numbers on goods…

• Stellar Performance by Marine Le Pen on 60 Minutes

  Published 06 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Marine le Pen put in a stellar performance on 60 Minutes on Sunday. Le pen came across as very presidential. The interview, in French but…

• March Rate Hike Odds Surge to 80 Percent: New Standard for 'Surprisingly Strong' Economy

  Published 28 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Rate hike odds surged as high as 80% following comments today from two Fed presidents. The odds are 62% as I am typing now. Let's…

• Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Dive: NAR Blames Tight Supply

  Published 27 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Fresh on the heels of a glowing existing homes sales report comes news of an unexpected plunge in pending home sales. Economists in the Econoday…

• Fuse is Lit! Target2 Imbalances Hit Crisis Levels: An Email Exchange With the ECB Over Target2

  Published 25 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Eurozone Target2 imbalances have touched or exceeded the crisis levels hit in 2012 when Greece was on the verge of leaving the Eurozone. Others have…

• Rate Hike Cycles vs. the US Dollar: Rate Hikes Bad for Gold?

  Published 23 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Here are two different looks at Fed rate hikes since Volcker. The charts are the same, but one presentation is a lot funnier than the…

• Global Trade Disaster Nearly Certain

  Published 22 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Growth in global trade has slowed for five consecutive years. Trade growth for 2016 was under 2%. That's something that has happened only three times…

• Trump to Fill at Least Three Fed Positions: What Will the Trump Fed Look Like?

  Published 21 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

  In the election run-up, Donald Trump both praised and criticized higher interest rates, multiple times each way. So what the heck does Trump want? The…

• Inflation Expectations Rise, Spending Projections Decline

  Published 14 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Every month the Federal Reserve Bank of New York does a survey of consumer expectations: Inflation, spending, earning, and jobs. The January 2017 report came…

• Impediments to Growth

  Published 10 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

  In Hoisington's Fouth Quarter Review (not yet posted online), Lacy Hunt takes a look at the Trump economy, policy lags, and impediments to growth. Hunt sees…

• In Search of a Fix (When None is Possible): What Happens?

  Published 09 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

  As I pointed out long ago, there is no possible fix to the Dallas pension mess except massive haircuts to pension payouts. Given The pension…

• GDPNow Forecast Sinks to 2.7% from 3.4%: What Happened?

  Published 08 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

  The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model for first quarter GDP took a dive to 2.7% today from 3.4% on February 1. Let's investigate why. Latest forecast:…

• Dear IMF, Please Put Greece Out of Its Misery

  Published 07 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

  For the umpteenth time, the IMF has warned that Greece cannot meet fiscal targets set by its creditors. And once again, the IMF insists that…

• Shocking Fact in Today's Job Report: Employment Stalls

  Published 03 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Initial Reaction Today's employment report shows a robust increase of 227,000 jobs. The good news stops there. The rest of the report was horrific. The…

• End of Fed Independence! House Financial Services Committee Sends Warning Letter to Yellen 'This is Unacceptable'

  Published 03 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

  The Trump team wasted no time in telling Fed Chair Janet Yellen what is and is not acceptable. Patrick McHenry, the vice chairman of the…

• Is Germany a Currency Manipulator? China? Arguably Yes, Under Bill Obama Signed: Full Blown Currency War on Deck

  Published 02 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

  One problem in labeling a "currency manipulator" has been the lack of a definition of the term. But thanks to the Trade Facilitation and Trade…

• Another Greek WTF Showdown Moment Explained

  Published 30 January 2017 | viewed 0 times

  The IMF has once again threatened to pull out of the Troika following a warning that Eurogroup Loan Measures Not Enough for Greek Debt. Greek…

• What's Behind the Collapse in Global Exports in the US, Japan, EU, Emerging Markets?

  Published 27 January 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Global export of goods (priced in US dollars) has collapsed in Japan, the EU, and emerging markets, since their recovery highs following the great recession.…

• Formulas Don't Think: Investigating Weather-Related GDP

  Published 25 January 2017 | viewed 0 times

  The New York Fed updated its GDP Nowcast forecast for 4th quarter 2016 and 1st quarter 2017 last Friday. Normally I report on such events,…

• Everything Is Awesome!

  Published 23 January 2017 | viewed 0 times

  The market is pricing in a lot of "Everything is Awesome". Reader Jason Leach, CFA, asks "Is all this awesomeness, real or fantasy? Has it…