Mike Shedlock

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• Markit PMI vs. ISM Fantasyland GDP Projection: Stagflation Lite?

  Published 04 April 2017 | viewed 0 times

  The discrepancy between the ISM's Report on Business and Markit's Manufacturing PMI assessment of the economy widened today. Both reports agree that cost inflation is…

• Construction Spending Rises 0.8% vs. 1.0% Expectation: Nonresidential Rolling Over?

  Published 03 April 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Construction spending, up 0.8% in February, was a bit weaker than the Bloomberg Econoday Consensus estimate of 1.0%. However, the Census Department revised January from…

• Central Banks Rethink 2% Inflation Target (In the Wrong Direction of Course)

  Published 03 April 2017 | viewed 0 times

  If Central Banks wanted to make a positive impact on the global economy, they would abolish themselves and let the free market set rates. Instead,…

• Personal Income Up But Real Consumer Spending Declines Second Month

  Published 31 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report shows personal income rose 0.4% but consumer spending rose a scant 0.1% in February. The weak rise in…

• Margin Debt Hits Record High Coinciding With Extreme Consumer Confidence: Analysts Say 'Don't Worry'

  Published 30 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  The Wall Street Journal reports Margin Debt Hit an All-Time High in February. Given that Margin debt has a history of peaking right before financial…

• Bad Brexit Deal Better Than No Deal? Mathematical Idiocy! Odds of No Deal?

  Published 29 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  At the top of the list of absurd Brexit advice is the notion that a bad deal is better than no deal. But that's what…

• Consumer Confidence Strongest Since December 2000: A Strong Contrarian Indicator?

  Published 28 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Confidence are similar measures by two different organizations. The former is from the University of Michigan, the latter is by the…

• Two Percent Growth as Good as It Gets?

  Published 27 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  There have been 11 recessions and 11 recoveries since 1949. The current recovery is the slowest recovery since 1949 and closing in on the becoming…

• Pension Problem Too Big To Ignore?

  Published 26 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Bloomberg writer Danielle DiMartino Booth says the Pension Crisis Too Big for Markets to Ignore But I have a question: If the problem is too…

• GDPNow, FRBNY Nowcast Inch Up: Gap Still Two Percent

  Published 25 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Te Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model inched up to 1.0% from 0.9% on Friday. Nothing much mattered since a week ago. The FRBNY Nowcast Model inched…

• Durable Goods Orders Surge on Aircraft: Core Capital Goods and Autos Decline: Overall Weak Report

  Published 24 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  The headline durable goods orders for February beat the Econoday consensus and January was revised higher as well. But once again, strength was due to…

• Consumer Sentiment Statistical Noise: Modern Day Snake Oil

  Published 21 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Hooray! On March 17, the widely-followed University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit a 17-year high. The Fed and most of mainstream media believe consumer…

• Non-Euro Investors Dump Euro192 Billion of Bonds: First Annual Outflow in History, Euro-Area Buys US Assets

  Published 20 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  In 2016, non-euro investors dumped euro-denominated bonds for the first time in history. Moreover, euro-area investors barely made purchases according to the ECB's analysis of…

• Used Car Prices Plunge Most in Any Month Since 2008, Only 2nd February Decline in 20 Years

  Published 20 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  According to NADA Used Car Guide, wholesale prices on used vehicles are getting crushed. Let's take a look at the details. Used Car Prices Since 1995…

• Rogue Nowcasts: 67% Chance Both are Wrong

  Published 17 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Salil Mehta at Statistical Ideas commented on my recent post that compared the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model to the FRBNY Nowcast model. Mehta notes that…

• GDPNow Forecast Dips to 0.9%: Divergence with Nowcast Hits 2.3 Percentage Points

  Published 15 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  The Fed hiked today, smack in the face of an Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast of 0.9 percent. The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP…

• Illinois General Assembly Retirement System Only 13.52% Funded: Overall, Illinois Pension Debt Interest Hits $9.1 Billion Per Year

  Published 14 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Despite a massive rally in the stock market, Illinois public pension liabilities continue to grow. GARS, the Illinois General Assembly Retirement System, is only 13.52%…

• ECB Declares Victory Over Deflation: Hallelujah!

  Published 12 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  ECB President Mario Draghi Declares Victory Over Deflation. That's much like shouting hallelujah when you miss the game-winning field goal. Mario Draghi has declared victory…

• Solid Jobs Report but Divergence Between Jobs and Employment is Still Strong

  Published 10 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Initial Reaction Today's employment report shows a robust increase of 235,000 jobs. And for the first time in many months, the rest of the report…

• Year-Over-Year Import Prices at Highest Level in Five Years: Inflation Scare or the Real Deal?

  Published 09 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  In February, import prices rose 0.2% in line with the Econoday consensus. Export prices rose 0.3%, slightly more than the consensus estimate of 0.2%. Revisions…