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Markets

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Progress of the Current Secular Bear Market

Jul 01, 2002 at 00:00

The secular trends concept holds that the long-term rise in stock prices displays a "stair-step" pattern. An interesting demonstration of this idea can be seen in Figure 1, in which…

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The Kondratiev Cycle Revisited: Part Three, Implications for Gold

May 11, 2002 at 00:00

This is a continuation of a three-part article in which I examine the Kondratiev cycle in its modern form to form an idea of future long term economic trends, including…

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The Kondratiev Cycle Revisited: Part Two, Economic Implications

May 06, 2002 at 00:00

A potentially useful way to examine reduced prices is to look at their rates of change. Figures 2, 3, 4 and 5 show rates of price inflation, stimulation, and inflation…

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The Kondratiev Cycle Revisited: Part One, Current Position in Cycle

May 05, 2002 at 00:00

Here A and B are parameters obtained by doing a linear regression of the actual price versus S over a moving 100 year period centered on the year of interest.…

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Use of Secular Trend Concept for Asset Allocation in 401K, Update

Apr 16, 2002 at 00:00

My strategy is simple, I hold only two assets, "equity" and "cash". I increase my cash allocation as the stock market moves "down" and increase it as the market moves…

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The Kondratiev Cycle in Prices

Mar 24, 2002 at 00:00

This is the first of a series of articles describing the progress of the Kondratiev cycle over a long period of time. It is an extension of a previous article…

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Use of Secular Trend Concept for Asset Allocation in 401K

May 26, 2001 at 00:00

During a secular bull market trend long term investors should be fully invested in stocks. Once a secular bear market trend has begun, asset allocation between stock and non-stock investments…

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The Kondratiev Cycle and Secular Market Trends

May 12, 2001 at 00:00

The Kondratiev cycle is a 50-60 year cycle in prices, interest rates and other economic variables. It was noted as early as 1847 in an article in the British Railway…

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P/E, P/R and Irrational Exuberance

Apr 30, 2001 at 00:00

Professor Robert Shiller of Yale University published his book Irrational Exuberance at the height of the NASDAQ mania last year. Shiller made the argument that stocks were overvalued and would…

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An Application of Secular Market Trend Theory

Apr 16, 2001 at 00:00

The P/R and relative P/R valuation concept starts with the idea that business resources (R) constitute the true measure of the intrinsic value of broad-based representative index of stocks such…