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The Perils Of Success

Jan 16, 2003 at 00:00

Last month, Alan Greenspan spoke to the N.Y. Economic Club and sounded, for a while, like his old self. "Although the gold standard could hardly be portrayed as having produced…

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Generations and Business Cycles - Part I

Nov 06, 2002 at 00:00

The Kondratiev cycle is a 50-60 year cycle in prices, interest rates and other economic variables. It was noted as early as 1847 in an article in the British Railway…

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How Low Can We Go? What Several Valuation Methods Have To Say

Oct 20, 2002 at 00:00

This post examines three S&P500 valuation methods for what they have to say about the progress of the current secular bear market. The first method that used by Robert Shiller…

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Progress Update on the Current Secular Bear Market

Jul 23, 2002 at 00:00

A caveat to this analysis should be noted. Whereas the drop in P/R of 40% is consistent with the three previous non-Depression secular bear markets (average 38% drop) the absolute…

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Use of Secular Trend Concept for Asset Allocation in 401K, Part 3

Jul 15, 2002 at 00:00

Since my last update in April my company's 401K has dropped TWCUX as a fund option and I have been forced to move my assets into an S&P500 index fund.…

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Progress of the Current Secular Bear Market

Jul 01, 2002 at 00:00

The secular trends concept holds that the long-term rise in stock prices displays a "stair-step" pattern. An interesting demonstration of this idea can be seen in Figure 1, in which…

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The Kondratiev Cycle Revisited: Part Three, Implications for Gold

May 11, 2002 at 00:00

This is a continuation of a three-part article in which I examine the Kondratiev cycle in its modern form to form an idea of future long term economic trends, including…

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The Kondratiev Cycle Revisited: Part Two, Economic Implications

May 06, 2002 at 00:00

A potentially useful way to examine reduced prices is to look at their rates of change. Figures 2, 3, 4 and 5 show rates of price inflation, stimulation, and inflation…

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The Kondratiev Cycle Revisited: Part One, Current Position in Cycle

May 05, 2002 at 00:00

Here A and B are parameters obtained by doing a linear regression of the actual price versus S over a moving 100 year period centered on the year of interest.…

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Use of Secular Trend Concept for Asset Allocation in 401K, Update

Apr 16, 2002 at 00:00

My strategy is simple, I hold only two assets, "equity" and "cash". I increase my cash allocation as the stock market moves "down" and increase it as the market moves…