• 375 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 376 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 377 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 777 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 782 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 784 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 787 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 787 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 788 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 790 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 790 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 794 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 794 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 795 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 797 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 798 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 801 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 802 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 802 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 804 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
India To Auction 41 Coal Assets

India To Auction 41 Coal Assets

India’s coal sector is in…

Mining.com

Mining.com

Mining.com

MINING.com is a web-based global mining publication focusing on news and commentary about mining and mineral exploration. The site is a one-stop-shop for mining industry…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Commodities
  3. Industrial Metals

Are Copper Naysayers Missing The Big Picture?

Copper

The price of copper came under pressure again on Thursday amid worries about a global economic slowdown, particularly in manufacturing, vital to overall demand for the bellwether metal.

In early afternoon trading in New York, copper for delivery in July was at $2.5475 a pound ($5,615 a tonne), not far off levels last seen in 2017.

Trade worries have dogged copper price bulls for the better part of a year, but more recently weak data from China, the U.S., and Germany, the world’s top three consumers of industrial metals, has intensified the sell-off.

The US manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to below 50 today, the lowest reading since 2009 and the first sign that slowing growth in the sector may be turning into outright contraction of activity.

China, which imports more than half the world’s copper, posted the weakest industrial output growth in 16 years in July (although at 4.8% expansion year-on-year, still the envy of developed economies), while the month before German industrial production registered its biggest annual decline in nine years.

new report by Oxford Economics argues that the copper market’s “decent fundamentals are getting overlooked amid the gloomy backdrop for financial markets”:

The latest Copper Study Group data flagged up a 1% fall in global copper mine production in the first four months of 2019. Also, copper is constrained by a weak global pipeline of mine projects, and production in Chile was down 1% y/y in both May and June, partly due to strike action.

Spot treatment charges (which fall during periods of tightness) are currently down 37% y/y.

We expect the copper market to be in deficit this year and as a result prices look oversold relative to fundamentals. 

In another sign of underlying weakness in demand, global copper inventories have been rising steadily after hitting four-year lows in January. Stocks in London Metal Exchange supervised warehouses around the world jumped by 11% over just the past month.

(Click to enlarge)

Oxford Economics Commodity Price Forecasts August 2019

Copper stocks have been rising even as stockpiles of other industrial metals, notably zinc and aluminum shrink, and Oxford Economics says “most metal traders attribute the anomalous behavior of copper as being driven by inventory relocation rather than genuine market weakness.”

The Oxford Economics house view is for the copper price to average around $5,870 a tonne in the fourth quarter this year and climb back above $6,000 early in 2020.

By Mining.com 

More Top Reads From Safehaven.com:

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment