Goldman Sach’s head of commodities research Jeff Currie does not expect an early recovery in long-cycle investment and therefore prices of industrial metals due to a structural decline in demand from China, but he is very bullish on the gold price.
Speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance, Currie says gold will benefit from strong central bank buying and the wealth effect in India and China due to strengthening local currencies.
The last time gold topped $1,400 an ounce was briefly in early September 2013
On top of increased physical demand in the two top gold markets, Currie says “recessionary fears are raising physical demand for gold” and central bank buying “alone” will push the price of gold to $1,425 an ounce.
Goldman’s target price for gold is $1,450 an ounce. That represents double-digit gains from today’s price of $1,315 an ounce, already a seven-month high. The last time gold topped $1,400 an ounce was briefly in early September 2013.
Retail and institutional investors are also bullish, with holdings of physically-backed exchange traded funds now the most valuable in seven years.
Holdings in global gold-backed ETFs and similar products rose by 69 tonnes to 2,440 tonnes in 2018, equivalent to $3.4 billion of inflows, according to the World Gold Council.
This is the first time since 2012 that the value of total gold-backed ETF holdings has finished the year above $100, says the industry body.
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