Michael Ashton

E-PIPHANY

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• More Esther, Less Mester

  Published 28 July 2016 | viewed 0 times

  The last two weeks of July felt a lot like August typically does. Thin, lethargic trading; somewhat gappy but directionless. Ten-year Treasury note futures held…

• Homes Are Where the Heat Is

  Published 26 July 2016 | viewed 0 times

  This week's main event is supposed to be the FOMC meeting. Certainly, for some time now that has been the case: in a week with…

• Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

  Published 15 July 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can (and should!) follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles…

• UK Property Price Declines - Rational or Overdone?

  Published 07 July 2016 | viewed 0 times

  A couple of weeks after Brexit, and the world has not ended. Indeed, in the UK the fallout seems relatively tame. Sterling has weakened substantially,…

• Twits and Brits

  Published 27 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  I want to talk today about some of the really important pieces of information that circulated this weekend. First, I am certain that everyone is…

• Britain Survived the Blitz and Will Survive Brexit

  Published 24 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  So I see today that former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan says this is the worst crisis he has seen. Bigger than the 1987 Crash? Bigger…

• Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

  Published 16 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can (and should!) follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles…

• Not Enough TIPS to Go Around

  Published 14 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Some days - well, on days like today, and for the last few days - it seems like there are far too many TIPS. Although…

• Obamacare, Monopsonies, and Inflation – Nice Try!

  Published 09 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Recently, the San Francisco Federal Reserve published an Economic Letter in which they described why "Medicare Payment Cuts Continue to Restrain Inflation." Their summary is:…

• Math is Bad for Equities

  Published 07 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  In recent years, equities have been carried higher by several compounding effects: the growth of the economy, expanding profit margins, and expanding multiples. These three…

• The Destination Currency in the Global Carry Trade:USD?

  Published 02 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  If you are an investor of the Ben Graham school, you've lived your life looking for "value" investments with a "margin of safety." Periodically, if…

• Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

  Published 17 May 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can (and should!) follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles…

• The Crowded Trade

  Published 12 May 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Wise investors hate crowded trades. Good, high-alpha trades tend to be out-of-consensus and uncomfortable. Bad trades tend to be ones that everyone wants to talk…

• Inflation with Deflationary Overtones?

  Published 06 May 2016 | viewed 0 times

  The Employment report was weak, with jobs coming in below consensus with a downward revision to prior months. It wasn't abysmally weak, and not enough…

• A Broken Clock That is Persistently Wrong

  Published 04 May 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Durable goods orders, ex-transportation, showed a negative print today for the second time in a row. This was expected, in most senses of the word,…

• Irrational Lugubriousness on Inflation

  Published 28 April 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Today the 1-year CPI swap rate closed at 1.77%, the highest rate since 2014 (see chart, source Bloomberg). The CPI swap (which, as an aside,…

• Interesting Intraday Oil Futures Flows

  Published 27 April 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Here is an interesting chart that might suggest flows into oil markets. Or perhaps it suggests something else. But I put together the chart below…

• The Pendulum of Inflation Complacency

  Published 26 April 2016 | viewed 0 times

  I am sure that in my career I have seen weirder reactions, but when the Durable Goods number came out and plainly was significantly weaker-than-expected…

• Don’t Forget Oil Demand Elasticity!

  Published 18 April 2016 | viewed 0 times

  The big story of the weekend was that a meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC producers, at which an agreement was supposed to be signed to…

• Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

  Published 14 April 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Following is a concatenation of my post-CPI tweets. You can follow me @inflation_guy. Due to scheduling issues, I don't have any further development of the…