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Michael Ashton

Michael Ashton

E-PIPHANY

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

  • More Esther, Less Mester

    Published 28 July 2016 | viewed 0 times

    The last two weeks of July felt a lot like August typically does. Thin, lethargic trading; somewhat gappy but directionless. Ten-year Treasury note futures held…

  • Homes Are Where the Heat Is

    Published 26 July 2016 | viewed 0 times

    This week's main event is supposed to be the FOMC meeting. Certainly, for some time now that has been the case: in a week with…

  • Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

    Published 15 July 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can (and should!) follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles…

  • UK Property Price Declines - Rational or Overdone?

    Published 07 July 2016 | viewed 0 times

    A couple of weeks after Brexit, and the world has not ended. Indeed, in the UK the fallout seems relatively tame. Sterling has weakened substantially,…

  • Twits and Brits

    Published 27 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

    I want to talk today about some of the really important pieces of information that circulated this weekend. First, I am certain that everyone is…

  • Britain Survived the Blitz and Will Survive Brexit

    Published 24 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

    So I see today that former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan says this is the worst crisis he has seen. Bigger than the 1987 Crash? Bigger…

  • Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

    Published 16 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can (and should!) follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles…

  • Not Enough TIPS to Go Around

    Published 14 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Some days - well, on days like today, and for the last few days - it seems like there are far too many TIPS. Although…

  • Obamacare, Monopsonies, and Inflation – Nice Try!

    Published 09 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Recently, the San Francisco Federal Reserve published an Economic Letter in which they described why "Medicare Payment Cuts Continue to Restrain Inflation." Their summary is:…

  • Math is Bad for Equities

    Published 07 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

    In recent years, equities have been carried higher by several compounding effects: the growth of the economy, expanding profit margins, and expanding multiples. These three…

  • The Destination Currency in the Global Carry Trade:USD?

    Published 02 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

    If you are an investor of the Ben Graham school, you've lived your life looking for "value" investments with a "margin of safety." Periodically, if…

  • Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

    Published 17 May 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can (and should!) follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles…

  • The Crowded Trade

    Published 12 May 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Wise investors hate crowded trades. Good, high-alpha trades tend to be out-of-consensus and uncomfortable. Bad trades tend to be ones that everyone wants to talk…

  • Inflation with Deflationary Overtones?

    Published 06 May 2016 | viewed 0 times

    The Employment report was weak, with jobs coming in below consensus with a downward revision to prior months. It wasn't abysmally weak, and not enough…

  • A Broken Clock That is Persistently Wrong

    Published 04 May 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Durable goods orders, ex-transportation, showed a negative print today for the second time in a row. This was expected, in most senses of the word,…

  • Irrational Lugubriousness on Inflation

    Published 28 April 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Today the 1-year CPI swap rate closed at 1.77%, the highest rate since 2014 (see chart, source Bloomberg). The CPI swap (which, as an aside,…

  • Interesting Intraday Oil Futures Flows

    Published 27 April 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Here is an interesting chart that might suggest flows into oil markets. Or perhaps it suggests something else. But I put together the chart below…

  • The Pendulum of Inflation Complacency

    Published 26 April 2016 | viewed 0 times

    I am sure that in my career I have seen weirder reactions, but when the Durable Goods number came out and plainly was significantly weaker-than-expected…

  • Don’t Forget Oil Demand Elasticity!

    Published 18 April 2016 | viewed 0 times

    The big story of the weekend was that a meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC producers, at which an agreement was supposed to be signed to…

  • Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

    Published 14 April 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Following is a concatenation of my post-CPI tweets. You can follow me @inflation_guy. Due to scheduling issues, I don't have any further development of the…