Mike Shedlock

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• UK Rate Cut Coming, No Hikes Expected for 5 Years: Osborne Stupidity Revisited

  Published 27 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Not only did the British pound plunge in the wake of Brexit, so have UK interest rates. Traditional theory says central banks need to raise…

• Services PMI Remains Weak, Markit Chief Economist Estimates 1% GDP Growth

  Published 27 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  The Markit Services PMI report shows service sector growth remains subdued in June. Data is from June 13 to 24. The diffusion index reading for…

• Why Did the UK Enter the EU in the First Place?

  Published 26 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Looking back, one really has to wonder why the UK subjected itself to all the inane EU nannycrat rules and regulations in the first place.…

• Hollande Meets Le Pen to Discuss Brexit; Can France Escape a Referendum?

  Published 25 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  In the wake of the stunning Brexit vote come news that French president Francois Hollande has called for a meeting of minds to discuss a…

• Brexit: What Happened Take II

  Published 25 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Several readers are still wondering why the odds-makers and pollsters got it wrong so badly. Let's recap. If the odds-makers made money, they got it…

• History Lesson: Don't Count On History

  Published 25 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  I would have loved to have predicted the Brexit vote with confidence. But I didn't. Instead I predicted a 52-48 win for Remain. However, I…

• Word of Thanks to the Person Most Responsible for Brexit: Angela Merkel

  Published 24 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  It's time to pay tribute to the single person most responsible for the amazing Brexit outcome: German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Without Merkel's stunning idiocies and…

• New Home Sales Decline 6%, Median Price Down 9.3%, Builders Offer Concessions

  Published 23 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  News home sales in May fell 6% from a downward revision to April's huge numbers. Those April numbers looked too good to be true, and…

• Robots to Pay 'Social Security' Under EU Tax Proposal

  Published 22 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  The EU is studying a proposal that would count robots as people for tax purposes. Although the proposal is deemed "too early" to implement just…

• ECB Running Out of Bonds to Buy for QE

  Published 22 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  ECB rules say QE bond purchases must be weighted according to size of the economy. That means German bonds are the preferred issue. The rules…

• Target2 Imbalances Grow: ECB Overtakes Greece as Third Largest Debtor

  Published 22 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Target2 imbalances in the eurozone continue to mount. The ECB itself now has the third largest negative balance following Italy and Spain. Target2 is a…

• 7 of Last 9 Recessions Started in Quarters with Positive GDP

  Published 21 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Think recessions begin when GDP is negative? Think 2 quarters of negative growth are required to start a recession? If you believe either of those,…

• Nowcast GDP Estimate Dips to 2.1%, GDPNow at 2.8%

  Published 18 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  The last FRNBY Nowcast report was on June 3. It's been two weeks since the last report. Why the delay? The answer is last Friday…

• Brexit: About That Online/Phone Discrepancy (It Vanished); Surprising Poll After Cox Murder

  Published 18 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Graphs below show Brexit poll results since June 10. There were 10 polls in all, five online and 5 phone. For months we have been…

• Brexit Debate Focus Shifts to Chickens, Dead Cats, Taxes

  Published 16 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  After having already proven he is a liar and poor negotiator, Prime minister David Cameron also proved he is a "chicken little" by backing out…

• Conversations with New York and Atlanta Fed Senior Economists on Their GDPModels

  Published 15 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  I had had recent phone and email conversations with senior economists at the New York Fed and Atlanta Fed regarding their GDP forecasts. The Atlanta…

• US Recession Odds Hit 55% According to Deutsche Bank Model

  Published 14 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  A Deutsche Bank yield curve model says the odds of a US recession are now 55%. Specifically, the model notes the flattening of the yield…

• Brexit: Leave Takes 6-Point Lead in Latest Polls; Running Average Puts Leave Ahead

  Published 13 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  In the Brexit battle, undecided voters are now strongly breaking into the Leave camp. A new set of Guardian/ICM poll (one online and one telephone)…

• 19 Point Lead for 'Leave' in Latest Brexit Poll is Nonsense: What's Really Happening?

  Published 12 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Following news of a potentially flawed poll on Friday that shows a 10 point lead in favor of Brexit comes an even more incredible poll…

• New Poll Shows Brexit With 10-Point Lead: Is it Flawed?

  Published 12 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

  A new poll by ORB for The Independent shows Leave has a 55-45 lead in the Brexit battle. Mat Singh at Number Cruncher Politics says…