"No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich" - Lord Overstone
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Gold •141 days | 2,368.70 | +35.30 | +1.51% |
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Platinum •10 mins | 972.00 | +6.20 | +0.64% |
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WTI Crude •10 mins | 69.91 | +1.16 | +1.69% |
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Gasoline •10 mins | 2.048 | +0.003 | +0.12% |
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Ethanol •141 days | 2.161 | +0.000 | +0.00% |
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Silver •141 days | 30.82 | +1.16 | +3.92% |
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Silver • 141 days | 30.82 | +1.16 | +3.92% | |
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Copper • 141 days | 4.530 | +0.111 | +2.51% | |
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Brent Crude • 10 mins | 73.98 | +1.17 | +1.61% | |
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Natural Gas • 10 mins | 3.304 | +0.111 | +3.48% | |
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Heating Oil • 10 mins | 2.261 | +0.034 | +1.55% |
Paul Kasriel
Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010
Biography
Paul joined the economic research unit of The Northern Trust Company in 1986 as Vice President and Economist, being named Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research in 2000. His economic and interest rate forecasts are used both internally and by clients. The accuracy of the Economic Research Department's forecasts has consistently been highly-ranked in the Blue Chip survey of about 50 forecasters over the years. To that point, Paul received the prestigious 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for having the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip survey participants for the years 2002 through 2005. The accuracy of Paul's 2008 economic forecast was ranked in the top five of The Wall Street Journal survey panel of economists. In January 2009, The Wall Street Journal and Forbes cited Paul as one of the few who identified early on the formation of the housing bubble and foresaw the economic and financial market havoc that would ensue after the bubble inevitably burst. Through written commentaries containing his straightforward and often nonconsensus analysis of economic and financial market issues, Paul has developed a loyal following in the financial community. The Northern's economic website was listed as one of the top ten most interesting by The Wall Street Journal. Paul is the co-author of a book entitled Seven Indicators That Move Markets.
Paul began his career as a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He has taught courses in finance at the DePaul University Kellstadt Graduate School of Business and at the Northwestern University Kellogg Graduate School of Management. Paul serves on the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association.
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Musings on Proposed Government Spending Cuts and Current Energy Price Increases
Effect on Total Economy-Wide Spending from a Cut in Government Spending Suppose that the federal government cuts its current spending on goods and services. Assuming…
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Don't Know Much...
"Don't Know Much about Geography, Don't Know Much Trigonometry, But Sarah Palin Does Know Her Monetary Policy" With apologies to Sam Cooke, Lou Adler and…
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US Economic and Interest Rate Outlook
The forecasts of key economic variables and interest rates are in the usual tables following the respective slides with highlights of the forecast. There are…
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Corporations, Give Thanks - With 'Enemies' Like This, Who Needs Friends?
On November 23, the Bureau of Economic Analysis updated its analysis of U.S. corporate profits. After-tax corporate profits from current operations hit their highest level,…
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I Wonder What Milton Friedman and Karl Brunner Would Say About Allan Meltzer
While in Toronto Tuesday evening, I just happened to see on a Canadian television program Allan Meltzer, a professor of political economy at Carnegie Mellon…
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I Am Shocked, Shocked that the QE2 is Akin to Printing Money and Public Debt Monetization!
Every student who took Econ 101 and stayed awake during the lectures learned that the Federal Reserve has the power to create credit figuratively "out…
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They Just Don't Get It
No, I am not talking about the Democratic Party. I am talking about the mainstream commentators on the Federal Reserve's second round of quantitative easing,…
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The Quantitative Easing in the Mid 1930s Appeared to Have Been Successful
There is much skepticism as to whether the Fed's second round of quantitative easing, QE2, will be effective in stimulating the nominal demand for goods…
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QE2 Is Likely to More Successful than QE1
On November 3, the FOMC announced that it would increase the quantity of its outright holdings of securities by a net $600 billion by the…
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The Effectiveness of QE2 Depends on Quantities, Not Interest Rates or Exchange Rates
Presumably, the Federal Reserve is preparing to embark on another round of quantitative easing (QE) - that is, another round of open market purchases of…
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The Real Economic Cost of Government Is Spending – So, What Do You Want to Cut?
One of the biggest issues in this mid-term election is the desire to pare the rate of growth in federal government spending. Economically speaking, this…
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Summers' End
There is something poetic, I suppose, about Larry Summers announcing his upcoming departure from the Obama administration on the last day of summer. The Obama…
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Michael Boskin's Summer of Economic History Amnesia
Monetarism, In a September 2 op-ed commentary in the WSJ ("Summer of Economic Discontent"), Michael Boskin, former chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers…
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Second-Quarter Real GDP Growth - Germany vs. the U.S.
As Chart 1 shows, German real GDP growth, at an annualized rate of 9.0%, blew away U.S. growth at a paltry 1.6%. A number of…
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I Renounce Monetarism (with apologies to Mr. Lippman of Pendant Publishing)
Monetarism, the notion that the behavior of some definition of the money supply is a leading indicator of aggregate demand, is akin to malaria. Once…
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Tax Rates, Business Investment, Personal Saving Rates: We Report, You Decide
From 1955 through 2008, the median eight-year compound annualized growth in real business fixed investment expenditures was 4.325%. In the eight years ended 2008 the…
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Why Hasn't the Stimulus Been More Stimulative?
Talk of the economy slipping back into a recession is rampant. The American Recovery and Reconstruction Act (ARRA) of 2009, aka the stimulus package of…
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Bank Credit - One Month Does Not Make a Trend, But ...
In July, for only the second time in the past 21 months, U.S. commercial bank total credit (loans and securities) increased (see Chart 1). And…
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July Employment Situation - Lackluster Private Sector Job Growth Once Again
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.5% in July, no change from June's reading. The unemployment rate was 5.0% in December 2007 when the recession commenced. Cycle high…
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July ISM Manufacturing Report Points to Undesired Inventory Build-Up and Further Slowing in Production Activity Pace
The July ISM manufacturing composite index slipped 0.7 points to a level of 55.5. This marks the third consecutive decline in this index (see Chart…
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