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Paul Kasriel

Paul Kasriel

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010


Paul joined the economic research unit of The Northern Trust Company in 1986 as Vice President and Economist, being named Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research in 2000. His economic and interest rate forecasts are used both internally and by clients. The accuracy of the Economic Research Department's forecasts has consistently been highly-ranked in the Blue Chip survey of about 50 forecasters over the years. To that point, Paul received the prestigious 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for having the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip survey participants for the years 2002 through 2005. The accuracy of Paul's 2008 economic forecast was ranked in the top five of The Wall Street Journal survey panel of economists. In January 2009, The Wall Street Journal and Forbes cited Paul as one of the few who identified early on the formation of the housing bubble and foresaw the economic and financial market havoc that would ensue after the bubble inevitably burst. Through written commentaries containing his straightforward and often nonconsensus analysis of economic and financial market issues, Paul has developed a loyal following in the financial community. The Northern's economic website was listed as one of the top ten most interesting by The Wall Street Journal. Paul is the co-author of a book entitled Seven Indicators That Move Markets.

Paul began his career as a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He has taught courses in finance at the DePaul University Kellstadt Graduate School of Business and at the Northwestern University Kellogg Graduate School of Management. Paul serves on the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association.

  • Is Restrictive Monetary Policy What Ails The Eurozone?

    Published 30 June 2005 | viewed 5,634 times

    The eurozone economy is struggling. Political pressure is mounting to persuade the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut its policy rate from its current level…

  • What's Down With Bank Holdings of Mortgage-Backeds?

    Published 28 June 2005 | viewed 5,552 times

    In the week ended June 15, holdings of mortgage backed securities in large domestically-chartered U.S. banks' investment portfolios dropped an unprecedented $65.0 billion (see chart…

  • Wilting Manufacturing vs. Vibrant Housing

    Published 25 June 2005 | viewed 4,943 times

    This is the economic dichotomy that FOMC members will be contemplating next week. Today's economic releases exemplify this dichotomy. Although the headline figure of a…

  • When Gold Really Starts To Glitter

    Published 24 June 2005 | viewed 6,135 times

    Gold really starts to glitter when you can't get an "honest" return on your money market investments in any major currency. That is, when the…

  • Glut vs. Weaker Economy, or Glut and Weaker Economy?

    Published 23 June 2005 | viewed 5,903 times

    Sometimes I think Alan Greenspan will be remembered more for his phrase making than his monetary policy making. One of his latest phrases is the…

  • Housing Affordability Is Plunging Even With Relatively Minor Rate Increases

    Published 18 June 2005 | viewed 5,891 times

    As shown in Chart 1, the National Association of Realtors’ index of housing affordability fell in April to its lowest level since October 1991. In…

  • Labor Market Continues To Show Less Vigor

    Published 17 June 2005 | viewed 3,923 times

    I'm not a big fan of the monthly Employment Situation Report. It's a one-week snapshot of payrolls. It has all kinds of estimates (e.g. small…

  • Weak Retail Sales - Blame It On The Weather Or The Fed?

    Published 15 June 2005 | viewed 4,840 times

    Total retail sales fell 0.5% in May with widespread declines among the major categories. May was cooler-than-normal, which, probably according to the economic bulls, held…

  • All Currencies Beginning To Sink?

    Published 14 June 2005 | viewed 8,637 times

    A wise acquaintance of mine, Clyde Harrison, is fond of saying that fiat currencies do not float; they just sink at different rates. How can…

  • Import Prices and the Renminbi - Let Sleeping Dogs Lie?

    Published 11 June 2005 | viewed 4,221 times

    The chart below shows the behavior of U.S. import prices from the European Union, Japan and the Asian NICs (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and…

  • The Yield Curve - Greenspan's Blind Spot?

    Published 10 June 2005 | viewed 8,004 times

    Fed Chairman Greenspan testified today before the Joint Economic Committee (JEC). As an aside, the JEC is one of the best committees in Congress. Why?…

  • Regulatory Suasion - An Attempt At Deflating The Housing Bubble

    Published 04 June 2005 | viewed 5,008 times

    As the NASDAQ bubble inflated, some urged the Fed to raise margin requirements as a laser-guided weapon to take some air out of the stock…

  • Why Don't Economists Follow The Leaders?

    Published 23 May 2005 | viewed 6,048 times

    The "leaders" to which I am referring are those in the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators (LEI). The Conference Board on Thursday announced…

  • Prospects and Implications of Chinese Yuan Revaluation

    Published 08 May 2005 | viewed 7,256 times

    The probabilities of a near-term loosening of the Chinese yuan peg to the U.S. dollar are rising. Firstly, the Chinese economy, after experiencing a "soft…

  • Let's Give Greenspan His Due

    Published 04 May 2005 | viewed 5,436 times

    When Fed Chairman Greenspan testifies before Congress, he seems to talk a lot about fiscal policy and energy policy, but very little about his area…

  • Households Run Record Deficit In Q1

    Published 01 May 2005 | viewed 6,231 times

    Thank goodness for household borrowing and spending. Bless them, they spent $322.0 billion more, at an annual rate, than they earned in the first quarter.…

  • Case Study On Costs Of Hitching Your Wagon To A Dollar "Star" - Malaysia

    Published 14 April 2005 | viewed 6,499 times

    After the Asian economic implosion of 1997, Malaysia decided, among other things, to peg its currency to the greenback at a rate of 3.8 ringgits…

  • Households - Still Running On Empty!

    Published 01 April 2005 | viewed 6,978 times

    In the past month, there have been two articles ("American Savings Understated by Most Conventional Measure," Marc Chandler, Financial Times. March 8, 2005 and "Running…

  • How Should The Fed Respond To Energy Prices?

    Published 23 March 2005 | viewed 6,744 times

    In case you had not noticed, the price of crude oil has hit new all-time record highs in recent days (shown in the chart below).…

  • Is Ben Bernanke The "Reincarnation" Of Manley Johnson?

    Published 12 March 2005 | viewed 7,047 times

    Do you remember Manley Johnson? He was a Fed governor from February 7, 1986 to August 3, 1990. Johnson was the "leader of the pack"…