"No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich" - Lord Overstone
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Gold •141 days | 2,368.70 | +35.30 | +1.51% |
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Platinum •10 mins | 972.00 | +6.20 | +0.64% |
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WTI Crude •10 mins | 69.91 | +1.16 | +1.69% |
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Gasoline •10 mins | 2.048 | +0.003 | +0.12% |
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Ethanol •141 days | 2.161 | +0.000 | +0.00% |
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Silver •141 days | 30.82 | +1.16 | +3.92% |
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Silver • 141 days | 30.82 | +1.16 | +3.92% | |
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Copper • 141 days | 4.530 | +0.111 | +2.51% | |
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Brent Crude • 10 mins | 73.98 | +1.17 | +1.61% | |
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Natural Gas • 10 mins | 3.304 | +0.111 | +3.48% | |
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Heating Oil • 10 mins | 2.261 | +0.034 | +1.55% |
Paul Kasriel
Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010
Biography
Paul joined the economic research unit of The Northern Trust Company in 1986 as Vice President and Economist, being named Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research in 2000. His economic and interest rate forecasts are used both internally and by clients. The accuracy of the Economic Research Department's forecasts has consistently been highly-ranked in the Blue Chip survey of about 50 forecasters over the years. To that point, Paul received the prestigious 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for having the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip survey participants for the years 2002 through 2005. The accuracy of Paul's 2008 economic forecast was ranked in the top five of The Wall Street Journal survey panel of economists. In January 2009, The Wall Street Journal and Forbes cited Paul as one of the few who identified early on the formation of the housing bubble and foresaw the economic and financial market havoc that would ensue after the bubble inevitably burst. Through written commentaries containing his straightforward and often nonconsensus analysis of economic and financial market issues, Paul has developed a loyal following in the financial community. The Northern's economic website was listed as one of the top ten most interesting by The Wall Street Journal. Paul is the co-author of a book entitled Seven Indicators That Move Markets.
Paul began his career as a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He has taught courses in finance at the DePaul University Kellstadt Graduate School of Business and at the Northwestern University Kellogg Graduate School of Management. Paul serves on the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association.
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Light at the End of the Tunnel or an Oncoming Freight Train?
With regard to the economy, we believe there are faint signs of light at the end of the tunnel. Real consumer spending increased by 0.4%…
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Equity Market - Record Increase in Supply Meets Extreme Risk Aversion
Equity prices, like the prices of everything, are determined by the interaction of supply and demand factors. The latest flow-of -funds data from the Federal…
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Paradox Squared
Mainstream economists and the mainstream media continue to embrace John Maynard Keynes' notion of the "paradox of thrift." While most economists subscribe to the view…
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SIVs Got Us into Trouble - SIVs to the Rescue?
We apologize for the tardiness and brevity of this update. We have been on the peas-and-chicken circuit for the better part of two months, which…
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The Great Depression - Just the Facts, Ma'am
Contrary to what you might believe, the Great Depression of the 1930s was not a decade-long era of economic decline. Rather, the Great Depression was…
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Channeling Bob Laurent for a Market-Based "Bad" Bank Solution
Robert D. (Bob) Laurent was the smartest person I have ever encountered. I had the privilege of learning from and working with him at the…
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DUBYA
No, our title does not refer to our 43rd president. Rather, it refers to the shape of an economic scenario that is beginning to look…
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The Credit Rating on a Benevolent Counterfeiters Debt - Infinity A?
In today's Wall Street Journal a trial balloon was floated with regard to the Fed issuing its own debt. This is akin to a counterfeiter…
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If the Fed Wants to Stimulate Bank Lending, Keep Its Target at 1.00%
After the release of the weak November employment data, the market more than ever expects the FOMC to reduce its federal funds rate target from…
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What's so Paradoxical about Thrift?
The term "paradox of thrift" is being bandied about these days. This refers to the notion that if one person saves, this is good for…
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Falling Consumer Prices - Good or Bad for Consumers?
Today the BLS reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 1.0% both seasonally adjusted as well as unadjusted. On an unadjusted basis, this…
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Alan Greenspan - Ted Williams or Willie Mays
October 24, 2007 As a kid growing up, my two favorite Major League baseball players were Ted Williams and Willie Mays. Both retired from playing…
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Invest for the Long-Term - the Very Long Term
Chart 1 Note: Horizontal line is where the Nikkei 225 closed on October 22, 2008. Chart 2 Note: Horizontal line is where the NASDAQ closed…
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Shape of the Recovery - "V" or "U"
Years ago there was an equity strategist at Bache-Halsey (I said it was years ago) who almost always got it wrong. When he finally was…
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Those Who Fail to Learn from the Leading Indicators Are Bound to Be Late on Their Recession Call
On a year-over-year basis, the quarterly average of the index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) began contracting in the first quarter of 2007. With the…
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If It Walks Like A Recession And Talks Like A Recession, It Must Be A Recession
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 5.7% in July vs. 5.5% in June; cycle low is 4.4% in March 2007 Payroll Employment: -51,000 in July vs. -51,000 in…
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Mr. Boskin, the Facts Don't Support Your Hypothesis
In an op-ed piece in today's (July 29) Wall Street Journal, Michael Boskin, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers for President George Herbert…
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SP 500 Corporate Profits Leave Little Recession Doubt
Are we in a recession or are we not? The debate goes on. Take a look at the year-over-year change in operating profits of the…
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Retail Sales - What a Difference a Deflator Makes
Don't write off the U.S. consumer, right? Wrong. On a year-over-year basis there has been a sharp deceleration in nominal retail sales growth. On a…
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Why Buy Treasuries When You Will Be Able to Buy Fed/Treasury-Guaranteed GSEs?
On Sunday, July 13, the Federal Reserve Board voted to give Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac access to the discount window at the Federal Reserve…
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