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Paul Kasriel

Paul Kasriel

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

Biography

Paul joined the economic research unit of The Northern Trust Company in 1986 as Vice President and Economist, being named Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research in 2000. His economic and interest rate forecasts are used both internally and by clients. The accuracy of the Economic Research Department's forecasts has consistently been highly-ranked in the Blue Chip survey of about 50 forecasters over the years. To that point, Paul received the prestigious 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for having the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip survey participants for the years 2002 through 2005. The accuracy of Paul's 2008 economic forecast was ranked in the top five of The Wall Street Journal survey panel of economists. In January 2009, The Wall Street Journal and Forbes cited Paul as one of the few who identified early on the formation of the housing bubble and foresaw the economic and financial market havoc that would ensue after the bubble inevitably burst. Through written commentaries containing his straightforward and often nonconsensus analysis of economic and financial market issues, Paul has developed a loyal following in the financial community. The Northern's economic website was listed as one of the top ten most interesting by The Wall Street Journal. Paul is the co-author of a book entitled Seven Indicators That Move Markets.

Paul began his career as a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He has taught courses in finance at the DePaul University Kellstadt Graduate School of Business and at the Northwestern University Kellogg Graduate School of Management. Paul serves on the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association.

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    On December 9, the Fed released its flow-of-funds data updated through the third quarter of this year. Herewith are some "stocking stuffers" fashioned from these…

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    Published 08 December 2004 | viewed 6,000 times

    It's different this time, right? Despite the fact that just about every measure shows that U.S. households spending more and saving less than ever before,…

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    Published 26 November 2004 | viewed 3,131 times

    Since 1961, The Wall Street Journal has printed as its editorial on the day before Thanksgiving a "chronicle of those memorable circumstances of the year…

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    Published 20 November 2004 | viewed 3,327 times

    The Fed's recent rate hikes have been "no brainers." The economy has been growing above its long-term trend and the fed funds rate has been…