"No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich" - Lord Overstone
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Gold •141 days | 2,368.70 | +35.30 | +1.51% |
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Platinum •10 mins | 972.00 | +6.20 | +0.64% |
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WTI Crude •10 mins | 69.91 | +1.16 | +1.69% |
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Gasoline •10 mins | 2.048 | +0.003 | +0.12% |
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Ethanol •141 days | 2.161 | +0.000 | +0.00% |
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Silver •141 days | 30.82 | +1.16 | +3.92% |
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Silver • 141 days | 30.82 | +1.16 | +3.92% | |
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Copper • 141 days | 4.530 | +0.111 | +2.51% | |
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Brent Crude • 10 mins | 73.98 | +1.17 | +1.61% | |
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Natural Gas • 10 mins | 3.304 | +0.111 | +3.48% | |
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Heating Oil • 10 mins | 2.261 | +0.034 | +1.55% |
Paul Kasriel
Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010
Biography
Paul joined the economic research unit of The Northern Trust Company in 1986 as Vice President and Economist, being named Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research in 2000. His economic and interest rate forecasts are used both internally and by clients. The accuracy of the Economic Research Department's forecasts has consistently been highly-ranked in the Blue Chip survey of about 50 forecasters over the years. To that point, Paul received the prestigious 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for having the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip survey participants for the years 2002 through 2005. The accuracy of Paul's 2008 economic forecast was ranked in the top five of The Wall Street Journal survey panel of economists. In January 2009, The Wall Street Journal and Forbes cited Paul as one of the few who identified early on the formation of the housing bubble and foresaw the economic and financial market havoc that would ensue after the bubble inevitably burst. Through written commentaries containing his straightforward and often nonconsensus analysis of economic and financial market issues, Paul has developed a loyal following in the financial community. The Northern's economic website was listed as one of the top ten most interesting by The Wall Street Journal. Paul is the co-author of a book entitled Seven Indicators That Move Markets.
Paul began his career as a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He has taught courses in finance at the DePaul University Kellstadt Graduate School of Business and at the Northwestern University Kellogg Graduate School of Management. Paul serves on the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association.
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Fed 'Twisting' Will Stimulate Economic Activity - for Bond Traders
The consensus view is that after adjourning from its September 20-21 meeting the FOMC will announce a plan to lengthen the maturity structure of its…
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If Some Dare Call It Treason, Was Milton Friedman a Traitor?
After having endured the most severe recession in the post-WWII era, we now are experiencing the weakest recovery. Why? Is it because businesses are "uncertain"?…
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The August 9 FOMC Decision - Ineffective at Best, Dangerous at Worst
The FOMC's decision to commit to holding its federal funds target in a range of zero to 25 basis points at least through mid 2013…
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It is not Enough to Tell the Fed to Target Nominal GDP - You Have to Tell it How
In the August 15 edition of the Financial Times, Clive Crook wrote an op-ed piece urging the Fed to target nominal GDP growth. This is…
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'I was sent to Washington to Change the Trajectory of Government Spending'
This is what a number of congressmen and senators have been saying of late. And to them I say, "Mission Accomplished!" As Chart 1 shows,…
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Waiting for an Inverted Yield Curve to Signal an Imminent Recession?
Don't hold your breath. As Chart 1 shows, moving from a positive spread between the yield on the Treasury 10-year security and the fed funds…
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SP's Downgrade of U.S. Sovereign Debt - Some People Actually Pay Them for these Opinions?
S&P stated the obvious after the U.S. markets closed on August 5 - the projected growth in U.S. public debt is on a long-term unsustainable…
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What's Not For The WSJ To Like About The Debt-Ceiling Legislation?
Milton Friedman taught us that the real economic cost of government is not how it raises its funds - taxes or borrowing -- but how…
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U.S. Debt Ceiling - If Cooler Heads Do Not Prevail
Our working assumption is that legislation authorizing an increase on the ceiling on federal debt will be enacted in time for the U.S. Treasury to…
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U.S. Businesses Appear to Have Selective Uncertainty
I keep hearing that what is holding U.S. businesses back from expanding and hiring is "uncertainty." Exactly what new types of uncertainty businesses face in…
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Washington Had a Spending Problem
But does it have one now and through 2017? In an historical context, no. Consider Chart 1, which shows the rate of growth in the…
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Continued Sluggish Economic Growth Expected Through 2012
With this commentary, we unveil our first formal forecast of U.S. economic activity and interest rates for 2012. The forecast for real GDP growth is…
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Poor People or Old People - Who Do We Want to Help?
Milton Friedman, may he rest in peace, used to talk about the "tyranny of the status quo." By that, he meant that it is difficult…
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Do We Have a Medicare Budgetary Problem or an Aging Population Problem?
Chart 1 shows what is driving the projections of federal spending (and, implicitly, the national debt) in the upcoming 11 fiscal years - mandatory federal…
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Growth in Net Federal Outlays
The 12-month cumulative total of net federal outlays in June 2011 was up 3.28% from the 12-month cumulative total in June 2010. From December 1955…
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Could There Be QE3?
The minutes of the June 21-22 FOMC meeting released today hinted at the possibility of another round of QE. To wit, "a few members noted…
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U.S. Monetary Policy: A Case of Self-Induced Paralysis?
This is a paraphrased title of an essay written in 2000 for the Peterson Institute for International Economics by then Princeton economics professor, Ben Bernanke.…
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Economy Brakes Even Before Fed Takes Its Foot Off the Accelerator
In our April 28 update, we emphasized that our forecast was in "transition" from stronger to weaker in large part depending on the behavior of…
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One Man's Fiscal Austerity is Another's Prosperity?
Fiscal austerity is all the rage these days in the developed economies. The proponents of fiscal austerity argue that it will lead to economic prosperity.…
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To QE or Not to QE? That is the Question
At its March 15 meeting, the FOMC decided to continue with its program of quantitative easing, which would result in a net increase of $600…
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