"No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich" - Lord Overstone
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Gold •141 days | 2,368.70 | +35.30 | +1.51% |
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Platinum •15 mins | 971.40 | +5.60 | +0.58% |
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WTI Crude •10 mins | 69.81 | +1.06 | +1.54% |
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Gasoline •10 mins | 2.051 | +0.005 | +0.25% |
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Ethanol •141 days | 2.161 | +0.000 | +0.00% |
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Silver •141 days | 30.82 | +1.16 | +3.92% |
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Silver • 141 days | 30.82 | +1.16 | +3.92% | |
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Copper • 141 days | 4.530 | +0.111 | +2.51% | |
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Brent Crude • 10 mins | 73.88 | +1.07 | +1.47% | |
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Natural Gas • 10 mins | 3.321 | +0.128 | +4.01% | |
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Heating Oil • 10 mins | 2.259 | +0.033 | +1.49% |
Paul Kasriel
Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010
Biography
Paul joined the economic research unit of The Northern Trust Company in 1986 as Vice President and Economist, being named Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research in 2000. His economic and interest rate forecasts are used both internally and by clients. The accuracy of the Economic Research Department's forecasts has consistently been highly-ranked in the Blue Chip survey of about 50 forecasters over the years. To that point, Paul received the prestigious 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for having the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip survey participants for the years 2002 through 2005. The accuracy of Paul's 2008 economic forecast was ranked in the top five of The Wall Street Journal survey panel of economists. In January 2009, The Wall Street Journal and Forbes cited Paul as one of the few who identified early on the formation of the housing bubble and foresaw the economic and financial market havoc that would ensue after the bubble inevitably burst. Through written commentaries containing his straightforward and often nonconsensus analysis of economic and financial market issues, Paul has developed a loyal following in the financial community. The Northern's economic website was listed as one of the top ten most interesting by The Wall Street Journal. Paul is the co-author of a book entitled Seven Indicators That Move Markets.
Paul began his career as a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He has taught courses in finance at the DePaul University Kellstadt Graduate School of Business and at the Northwestern University Kellogg Graduate School of Management. Paul serves on the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association.
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Macro Effects of Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act at 30,000 Feet
The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) is too complex a piece of legislation for me to provide anything more than a broad-brush analysis…
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As Greece Goes, So Goes the U.S.?
Greece hasn't gotten so much press since 146 B.C. when the Romans took over. Of late, Greece sneezes and investors think the U.S. is going…
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I Am Worried about the Government Debt My Descendants Will Inherit
This is a common concern I hear from seniors and even some enlightened baby boomers. (Yes, Virginia, there actually are some enlightened baby boomers!) Is…
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Hey Big Spender?
Whether it is Greece or the US, it seems as though the headline du jour involves government deficits and debt. The Obama administration has taken…
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Not So Fast!
Not so fast for the economy, for inflation and, therefore, for Fed tightening. The Commerce Department's first guess at Q4:2009 real GDP growth of 5.7%…
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Does Anyone in Washington Know What Needs to Be Done to Create Jobs?
This is a question that I often get as I speak to groups around the country. Based on the ADP monthly survey of employment, small-…
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If M Does Not Pick Up, Will V Save Us?
Before we get started, let's get the forecast update out of the way. With the release of November business inventories data, we have revised up…
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Debt Issues
A lot has been written in recent months about the exploding U.S. Treasury debt and how the U.S. dollar will surely suffer as a result…
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Ballooning Treasury Deficits - It Takes both Outlays and Receipts to Tango
On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury reported a record cumulative deficit over the 12 months ended December 2009 of $1.472 trillion (see Chart 1). Although the…
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Q4:2009 May Be as Good as It Gets Until Q4:2010
Largely because of some recently-released economic reports, we have bumped up our real GDP forecast significantly for Q4:2009 and much less so for all of…
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Airplane Thoughts
In the words of one of my favorite singer-song writers, Willie Nelson (another one of my favorites is Marisa Kasriel), I am on the road…
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Is the Fed Engaged in Quantitative or Qualitative Easing?
As I define it, qualitative easing. If the Fed were pursuing a quantitative easing policy, its balance sheet would be growing at an unusually high…
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While Pundits Play "Gotcha," the Unemployment Situation Improves
The best measure of the current condition of the labor market is the state unemployment insurance data. These data are not samples or surveys with…
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Accumulated Musings
I travel for business purposes a lot these days. Moreover, the battery life on my laptop is limited. As a result, at least these are…
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Inflation and Deficits - What Might Milton Friedman Have to Say?
Before getting started on this month's essay, I would like to say something about last month's chart show. I received a number of favorable comments…
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Increase Employment the Same Way You Increase Home Sales
Every month in its survey of economists' forecasts, the WSJ asks various inane questions. In its latest survey, one of the questions had to do…
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The Shoals of Depression Have Been Avoided, but the Economy Still Faces Strong Headwinds
We have just weathered the longest (19 months?) and deepest recession in the post-WWII era ... It is not that any one sector is soaring…
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The Rhyming of History - Bloomberg and the RFC?
On November 7, 2008, Bloomberg LP sued the Federal Reserve Board under terms of the Freedom of Information Act to obtain the names of borrowers…
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Initial Jobless Claims Edge Up for Second Consecutive Week - Its Not Unusual
Initial jobless claims, a relatively good short-term economic leading indicator that is not subject to large and frequent revisions, have increased for two consecutive weeks…
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If Inflation Is a Monetary Phenomenon, Is U.S. Hyperinflation a Clear and Present Danger?
We hear a lot of concern that the Fed's mushroomed balance sheet over the past two years is setting the stage for a 1970s' style…
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