"No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich" - Lord Overstone
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Gold •171 days | 2,368.70 | +35.30 | +1.51% |
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Platinum •10 mins | 936.40 | +12.90 | +1.40% |
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WTI Crude •1 day | 69.46 | +0.08 | +0.12% |
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Gasoline •1 day | 1.942 | +0.019 | +0.98% |
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Ethanol •171 days | 2.161 | +0.000 | +0.00% |
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Silver •171 days | 30.82 | +1.16 | +3.92% |
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Silver • 171 days | 30.82 | +1.16 | +3.92% | |
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Copper • 171 days | 4.530 | +0.111 | +2.51% | |
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Brent Crude • 1 day | 72.94 | +0.06 | +0.08% | |
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Natural Gas • 1 day | 3.748 | +0.164 | +4.58% | |
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Heating Oil • 1 day | 2.232 | -0.006 | -0.27% |
Paul Kasriel
Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010
Biography
Paul joined the economic research unit of The Northern Trust Company in 1986 as Vice President and Economist, being named Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research in 2000. His economic and interest rate forecasts are used both internally and by clients. The accuracy of the Economic Research Department's forecasts has consistently been highly-ranked in the Blue Chip survey of about 50 forecasters over the years. To that point, Paul received the prestigious 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for having the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip survey participants for the years 2002 through 2005. The accuracy of Paul's 2008 economic forecast was ranked in the top five of The Wall Street Journal survey panel of economists. In January 2009, The Wall Street Journal and Forbes cited Paul as one of the few who identified early on the formation of the housing bubble and foresaw the economic and financial market havoc that would ensue after the bubble inevitably burst. Through written commentaries containing his straightforward and often nonconsensus analysis of economic and financial market issues, Paul has developed a loyal following in the financial community. The Northern's economic website was listed as one of the top ten most interesting by The Wall Street Journal. Paul is the co-author of a book entitled Seven Indicators That Move Markets.
Paul began his career as a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He has taught courses in finance at the DePaul University Kellstadt Graduate School of Business and at the Northwestern University Kellogg Graduate School of Management. Paul serves on the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association.
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June Car and Truck Sales Skid to their Slowest Pace Since 1993
Seasonally-adjusted light motor vehicle sales fell 4.6% month-to-month in June to an annualized rate of only 13.6 million units - the slowest sales pace since…
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The Picture of a Credit Crunch
Not to belabor the point I have made in recent commentaries, but last Friday afternoon's report from the Fed of assets and liabilities of commercial…
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Current Growth in Money and Credit Aggregates Not Fueling Inflation
One of the tenets of that now allegedly defunct economic schools, monetarism, is that you cannot judge the stance of monetary policy by the level…
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NIPA Corporate Profits ? Thank Goodness for Weaker Dollar
Along with its "final" estimate of first-quarter GDP, the BEA also reported its revised estimate of first-quarter corporate profits. Compared with the fourth quarter of…
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New Homes - Taking Longer to Move the Merchandise
I hope the Census Bureau can count the number of people in the U.S. better than it can count the number of new homes sold.…
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June Conference Board Data Augurs Poorly for the Unemployment Rate
T.S. Eliot might have been off by a couple of months. It looks as though June might turn out to be the cruelest month instead…
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Another Blow to Household Cash Flow
As my regular readers know - well, it is difficult to have "regular" readers if I don't write regularly anymore - I make a distinction…
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If the Fed Is So Easy, Why Is the Growth in Money and Credit Aggregates So Weak?
We constantly hear from the talking heads that the Fed's recent policy actions are creating mammoth amounts of financial liquidity. But have these talking heads…
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Is the LEI Biased Upwards Because of Mammoth Decline in Fed Treasury Holdings
For the second month in a row, the Conference Board's index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) increased by 0.1% in May. And for the second…
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House Prices, the Wealth Effect and the Cash-in-Hand Effect
House prices are collapsing, which means that homeowners' equity in their houses is plunging. According to Federal Reserve flow-of-funds data, homeowners' equity dropped by $399…
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$536 Billion Worth of Household Assets Evaporated in February?
It sure is a good thing that $150 billion of checks from the IRS are in the mail to U.S. households because these same households…
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The Fed Is Shedding Treasuries at an Annualized Rate of $601 Billion
In the 20 weeks ended April 23, the Federal Reserve's outright holdings of U.S. Treasury securities had fallen by $231 billion, which is an annualized…
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Did Greenspan Have to Cut the Fed Funds Rate as Much?
In today's Financial Times, Greenspan is generously given yet another chance to defend his legacy. Greenspan's argument that it was not his doing that set…
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Ring-Fence the Bad Assets - Re-Arranging the Deck Chairs on the Titanic?
Yesterday I expressed my opinion on the lack of economic substance of allowing financial institutions to value the assets on their books at historical cost…
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Recession? Close Enough for Fed Work
It was only last August that the Fed's principal concern was preventing higher inflation. But, after 300 basis points of reductions in its federal funds…
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Time to Reform TAF?
The Term Auction Facility (TAF) that the Fed initiated in mid December of last year was a stroke of genius. In recent days, however, it…
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A Profits Recession
With today's release of "final" (until revised yet again) Q4:2007 GDP, the Commerce Department also issued its estimate of Q4 corporate profits. The profits data…
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The Bell Curve of Doom? - The Case-Shiller Home Price Index
According to the Case-Shiller Composite 20 (metro areas) index, the price of an existing home peaked in July 2006. From the July 2006 peak through…
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Greenspan's Legacy of Debt
I know spring just began, so it is too early for summer reruns. But given all that has taken place in the economy and financial…
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It's So Over for Household Spending
Households have been running deficits - i.e., spending more than their after-tax income - since just before the peak in the NASDAQ stock price index.…
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