"No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich" - Lord Overstone
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Gold •144 days | 2,368.70 | +35.30 | +1.51% |
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Platinum •10 mins | 958.70 | -16.40 | -1.68% |
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WTI Crude •10 mins | 70.69 | -0.55 | -0.77% |
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Gasoline •59 mins | 2.047 | -0.014 | -0.69% |
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Ethanol •144 days | 2.161 | +0.000 | +0.00% |
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Silver •144 days | 30.82 | +1.16 | +3.92% |
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Silver • 144 days | 30.82 | +1.16 | +3.92% | |
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Copper • 144 days | 4.530 | +0.111 | +2.51% | |
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Brent Crude • 10 mins | 74.62 | -0.55 | -0.73% | |
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Natural Gas • 10 mins | 3.323 | +0.194 | +6.20% | |
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Heating Oil • 11 mins | 2.271 | -0.004 | -0.19% |
Paul Kasriel
Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010
Biography
Paul joined the economic research unit of The Northern Trust Company in 1986 as Vice President and Economist, being named Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research in 2000. His economic and interest rate forecasts are used both internally and by clients. The accuracy of the Economic Research Department's forecasts has consistently been highly-ranked in the Blue Chip survey of about 50 forecasters over the years. To that point, Paul received the prestigious 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for having the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip survey participants for the years 2002 through 2005. The accuracy of Paul's 2008 economic forecast was ranked in the top five of The Wall Street Journal survey panel of economists. In January 2009, The Wall Street Journal and Forbes cited Paul as one of the few who identified early on the formation of the housing bubble and foresaw the economic and financial market havoc that would ensue after the bubble inevitably burst. Through written commentaries containing his straightforward and often nonconsensus analysis of economic and financial market issues, Paul has developed a loyal following in the financial community. The Northern's economic website was listed as one of the top ten most interesting by The Wall Street Journal. Paul is the co-author of a book entitled Seven Indicators That Move Markets.
Paul began his career as a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He has taught courses in finance at the DePaul University Kellstadt Graduate School of Business and at the Northwestern University Kellogg Graduate School of Management. Paul serves on the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association.
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Wall Street and Main Street Are Joined at the Hip
Watching Bubblevision and reading the Wall Street Journal (see August 7 edition, "Don't Panic About the Credit Market," David Malpass), I keep hearing that what…
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Diverse Asset Class Correlation and Leverage
Fund managers and investors have been puzzled why prices across a wide spectrum of assets moved together last week - namely, down. I think it…
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You Know Things Are Bad When The WSJ Trots Out Malpass and Wesbury In The Same Week
This headline is from an email I received today from a well-known financial journalist noted for her proclivity for identifying "naked emperors." I will address…
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2007 Car and Truck Sales - Perhaps Detroit Would Welcome A Strike?
Despite hefty incentives, light motor vehicle sales in July were down month-to-month for the seventh consecutive time this year. Sales crept along at an annual…
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No Worry about Consumer Spending So Long As Jobs/Income Are Growing?
That's the rallying cry of the economic bulls. Aside from the fact that jobs and personal income are coincident indicators, not leading indicators, and that…
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The Past Year's Stock Market Rally Has Not Been Economically Driven
What accounts for the 18.4% increase in the S&P 500 stock price index in the 12 months ended June 2007? Was it profit growth? Hardly.…
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If Leveraged Buybacks, Why Not Leveraged Dividends?
The equity investing community seems to get giddy when it hears the words "stock buyback." And why not if the stock is being bought back…
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Wealth Effect or Borrowing/Asset Sales Effect
In the question-and-answer session following his semiannual monetary policy report to Congress last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke pooh-poohed the notion that mortgage equity withdrawal…
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How Do You Say "Rube Goldberg" in Chinese?
China has an economic problem - inflation. When I speak of Chinese inflation, I am referring to what the People's Bank of China (PBOC, not…
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Q2 Retail Sales - Well, At Least Prez Plosser Has Exports
On July 11, Philly Fed President Plosser said that he was optimistic about U.S. consumer spending and exports. Today's report of a 0.9% in nominal…
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Philly Fed Prez Plosser: Consumer Spending, Exports Are Cause for Optimism
Really? Light motor vehicle sales down for six consecutive months (see Chart 1) is cause for consumer spending optimism? Bed Bath & Beyond, Best Buy,…
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BLS "Phantom" Workers Now Account for 56% of Payroll Increase
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics attempts to estimate how many jobs were created (or eliminated) by smaller businesses not yet included in its…
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Bank of England Today, European Central Bank in September?
As widely expected, the Bank of England (BOE) raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.75%. This represents a cumulative increase of 125…
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So, the Housing Recession Is Contained?
That's the conventional wisdom, but recent reports from retailers might suggest otherwise. Early in June, Bed Bath & Beyond issued a profit warning. BB&B's chief…
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Chicago Fed Index Suggests Continued Below-Trend Growth in Q2
The Chicago Fed publishes a national economic activity index each month that only the Chicago Fed's economic research department and I pay attention to. This…
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Subprime Mortgage Problems Quarantined? Ask the Home Builders
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) index of current sales of new single-family homes edged down a tick to 29 in the June survey,…
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May CPI: Still Scant Evidence of Food/Energy Price Surge Pass-Through
If this headline looks familiar, it is because yesterday's commentary had almost the same headline, save for "PPI" instead of "CPI." (Speaking of yesterday's commentary,…
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May PPI: Still Scant Evidence of Food/Energy Price Surge Pass-Through
Just like every headline economic statistic of late, the Finished-Goods All-Items PPI increased a greater-than-expected 0.9% in May after a 0.7% rise in April. As…
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So-Called Fed Model Suggests Housing Is Over-Valued
Better late than never, huh? The so-called Fed model is often used to gauge the under-over-valuation of corporate equities by comparing the earnings yield on,…
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What's the Deal with Bond Yields?
Why have bond yields moved so violently upward this past week? Well, yes, some of the data last week were stronger than expected. But come…
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