• 13 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 18 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 20 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 23 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 23 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 24 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 26 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 26 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 30 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 30 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 31 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 33 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 34 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 37 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 38 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 38 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 40 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  • 41 days Europe’s Economy Is On The Brink As Putin’s War Escalates
  • 44 days What’s Causing Inflation In The United States?
  • 45 days Intel Joins Russian Exodus as Chip Shortage Digs In
Is It Time To Pay Attention To Gold Miners?

Is It Time To Pay Attention To Gold Miners?

The invasion of Ukraine by…

U.S Targets Russian Gold Stockpiles

U.S Targets Russian Gold Stockpiles

In its latest round of…

Arkadiusz Sieron

Arkadiusz Sieron

Writer, Sunshine Profits

Arkadiusz Sieron is a certified Investment Adviser. He is a long-time precious metals market enthusiast, currently a Ph.D. candidate, dissertation on the redistributive effects of…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Commodities
  3. Precious Metals

Gold Rally Set To Continue Despite Election Drama

Gold Rally

Over the past few months, we have focused – for obvious reasons – on the pandemic and the following economic crisis. However, there are also other important developments happening in the background, apart from media attention that still focuses on the coronavirus. As they can substantially affect the gold prices, precious metals investors should be aware of them. One of the most important of such issues is the U.S. presidential election that is approaching fast. And the polls suggest that we could see the change of the President in the White House. As the chart below shows, Joe Biden (blue line) has an average polling margin of 9 percent over incumbent President Donald Trump (red line).

Will Biden win? That’s a great question. Polls say so, but who trusts polls these days? We believe that it is certainly possible, given that some voters could be dissatisfied with Trump administration’s handling of the epidemic, and especially if the second wave of the coronavirus is not contained quickly and the double-dip recession arrives. Trump could share then the fate of George H.W. Bush, who lost to Bill Clinton amid the early 1990s recession following jobless recovery. However, if the economy improves, the race could tighten between now and election day.

What would President Biden imply for the US economy and the gold market? Well, although I don’t support Trump’s trade policy, I’m neither impressed with Biden’s economic agenda. Under his economic revival plan, the federal government would spend $700 billion on research and development for new technologies and energy initiative and on American goods and services. What is key here is that Biden plans to pay for these and other programs by raising taxes “on corporations and the wealthy”. In particular, he wants to hike the corporate tax rate from the current 21 to 28 percent. I can be wrong, but Wall Street would not welcome lifting taxes, especially during the fragile recovery from the economic crisis. So, the stock market could tank, if Biden wins

But it does not have to... So far, investors are totally unfazed by the polls giving Biden higher chances. After all, still a lot can happen before November, so the markets can be waiting until the outcome of the presidential race looks more certain. It’s also possible that investors expect that Biden would moderate his proposals after elections or that they focus more on other parts of Biden’s agenda. For instance, Biden’s trade policy is less protectionist than Trump’s and he could end the trade wars with China (and other countries) that worried the markets so much last year. 

Hence, the possible effect of Biden’s triumph on equities and gold market is ambiguous. Theoretically, given that the stock market rallied, while the price of the yellow metal plunged, after Trump’s victory in 2016 (see the chart below), we should expect the reverse if Trump loses. 

But it should be too simplistic reasoning and both the stock and gold market could easily interpret Biden’s possible victory in a bullish manner, as investors tend to do during bull markets. Or, after an initial, short-term volatility, the underlying upward trends could resume. After all, Biden is generally acceptable to the investors. He is not as radical as Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. He is actually more mainstream in several aspects than Trump. And the financial markets managed to operate or even thrive under both Trump and Obama, whose vice-president was Biden.  

Related: Elon Musk Hints At Electric Jet Battery

In other words, no matter who will reside in the White House, the current macroeconomic conditions should remain generally favorably for the precious metals. We mean here the environment of  the soaring fiscal deficits (according to the CBO, the federal budget deficit was $2.7 trillion in the first nine months of fiscal year 2020, $2.0 trillion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last year!) and federal debt (according to the IMF, general government debt is expected to rise to 160 percent of GDP by 2030 even without further rounds of fiscal stimulus!), as well as negative real interest rates, and the fastest pace of growth in the money supply in the modern history, as the chart below shows. 

Moreover, no matter who wins, we do not expect radical changes in the accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, and the overall macroeconomic outlook, until the economy fully recovers from the coronavirus crisis. Investors should remember that although politics is important, what the Fed does is also, if not more, important for the stock and gold markets – and the U.S. central bank will not abandon its dovish bias, no matter who would reside in the White House. Neither Trump nor Biden would give up extravagant government spending and stimulus packages. If there is no difference, maybe we should vote for gold?

By Arkadiusz Sieron via Sunshine Profits

More Top Reads From Safehaven.com:

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment