Guy Lerner

Technical Take

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

Contact Contributor

Biography

• TLT: Still Constructive

  Published 31 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  When we last looked at long term Treasury bonds, it was on March 16, 2011, and I stated that "the technical and fundamental picture are…

• The Will Robinson Signal: What's Next?

  Published 28 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The Will Robinson signal is when excessive bullish sentiment occurs at a time of rising inflationary pressures as measured by our composite indicator that assesses…

• Investor Sentiment: Not Compelling

  Published 27 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Although equities were up nicely week over week, investors are not in a mood to chase prices higher. Investor sentiment is neutral, and to me,…

• Natural Gas: I Will Take a Flyer

  Published 23 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Is natural gas putting in a bottom? Technically, it appears so. Fundamentally, supply is great, but natural gas may be gaining more traction as an…

• The SP500: Buying The Dip Good Idea, Fraught With Consequences

  Published 23 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Our indicator constructed from the trends in the CRB Index, gold, and yields on the 10 year Treasury has come off of the extreme readings…

• Dollar Index: Under Control and Moving Along as Expected

  Published 21 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The Dollar doesn't seem relevant anymore. Recent geopolitical events combined with extremes in bearishness and "oversoldness" could hardly get a rise out of the greenback.…

• Investor Sentiment: Leading Price Lower

  Published 20 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Extremes in investor sentiment were seen over 2 months ago while the high in prices was seen 5 weeks ago. Often times, indicators of investor…

• Market Musings: Time for More QE?

  Published 17 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  We have heard it all before. The market is going up because of QE2. The Fed has got your back. And yes, from early November…

• Long Term Treasury Bonds: Very Positive Backdrop

  Published 16 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  When I last looked at long term Treasury Bonds (click here and here), I stated the following: "While the bottom for TLT (or top for…

• I Guess These Kids Got the Message

  Published 15 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Here is another amusing headline with picture from this morning's MarketWatch. Figure 1. MarketWatch Headline Wow! And those children really know how to protect themselves…

• Inflationary Headwinds Diminishing

  Published 14 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The composite indicator constructed from the trends in the CRB Index, gold and yields on the 10 year Treasury is no longer extreme. As prices…

• Investor Sentiment Neutral

  Published 13 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Investor sentiment is neutral. As expected, bullish enthusiasm has been on the wane as prices have pulled back over the past 2 weeks. The bulls…

• Tops Take Time To Form

  Published 10 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  During the week of February 10th, 2011, I was on vacation. Normally, vacation means vacation although I will monitor the markets. I try not to…

• The Dollar Index: Getting Very Specific on the Technicals

  Published 08 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  In the article, "The Dollar Index: High Risk of Unraveling", I presented a purely price based model that suggested that there is about a 33%…

• The Dollar Index: High Risk of Unraveling

  Published 07 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  I am sure that you are aware that the Dollar Index can't get a bid. This isn't news but a fact. The Dollar Index is…

• Investor Sentiment: No Change

  Published 06 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Bullish extremes in investor sentiment continue to persist, and company insiders remain lukewarm regarding their own company's shares. I believe last week's variant analysis continues…

• Market Musings: Short Takes

  Published 02 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke finishes his two day testimony in front of Congress and the one question I liked to see asked is: would…

• Still A Headwind

  Published 01 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Strong and rising trends in CRB Index, gold, and yields on the 10 year Treasury persist, and collectively, this represents a headwind for equities. I…

• Investor Sentiment: An Alternative Interpretation

  Published 27 February 2011 | viewed 0 times

  I have often contended that there are two ways to interpret sentiment data. The first is as a contrarian. Figure out when too many investors…

• The Technical Take: TLT

  Published 25 February 2011 | viewed 0 times

  It is my belief that we have seen the high in long term Treasury yields at least for a while, and I expressed this opinion…