Guy Lerner

Technical Take

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• How to Blow a Bubble

  Published 17 September 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Please don't try this at home! Ben Bernanke isn't the only one who knows how to blow bubbles. In this sped up SpongeBob Squarepants cartoon,…

• Investor Sentiment: That Was A Game Changer

  Published 16 September 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Well, that was a game changer. Ben Bernanke and the FOMC surprised the markets with a QE that was significant in scope, unsterilized, and open…

• Long Term Oscillator Points Towards Weakness in Dollar

  Published 12 September 2012 | viewed 0 times

  A long term oscillator, known as the Coppock Curve, points towards weakness in the Dollar. Figure 1 is a monthly chart of the Dollar Index…

• Investor Sentiment: Don't Become Roadkill

  Published 08 September 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Throw all the indicators and analysis out the window. The only thing you need to know is that central bankers are committed to more asset…

• Real Time Recession Indicator: 9.5.12

  Published 05 September 2012 | viewed 0 times

  A real time recession indicator constructed from a composite of leading economic indicators, high frequency economic data, and SP500 pricing models continues to suggest that…

• Investor Sentiment: When Is The Big Question

  Published 02 September 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Last week I stated that a close below 1407.75 on the SP500 would be a double top, and with the SP500 closing at 1406.58, we…

• Real Time Recession Indicator: 8.28.12

  Published 28 August 2012 | viewed 0 times

  A real time recession indicator constructed from a composite of leading economic indicators, high frequency economic data, and SP500 pricing models continues to suggest that…

• Investor Sentiment: Lots of Bulls

  Published 26 August 2012 | viewed 0 times

  It is market with little investment merit, and investors have made it clear that the only thing that counts is more QE3. So now we…

• Important Levels to Watch

  Published 22 August 2012 | viewed 0 times

  The bulls and bears are duking it out as price breaks out to new cyclical highs. The bulls will tell you those new highs must…

• Investor Sentiment: What Do New Highs Mean To You?

  Published 20 August 2012 | viewed 0 times

  12 weeks ago when the market started to climb, it was my expectation that the rally would fail and rollover prior to achieving new highs.…

• Bond Model Yields Sell Signal (Finally!)

  Published 19 August 2012 | viewed 0 times

  It was touch and go for a while, but our fundamental bond model has finally yielded a sell signal. The model is now in congruence…

• Investor Sentiment: Summer Doldrums!

  Published 13 August 2012 | viewed 0 times

  It is the summer doldrums. Volume is pathetic. There isn't much to say that has not been said already. The "smart money" is neutral. The…

• Bond Model: Failed Signal?

  Published 09 August 2012 | viewed 0 times

  It appears that our bond model will yield a sell signal at the end of this week. I use the word "appears" because my models…

• Investor Sentiment: Closer To The End Than The Beginning

  Published 06 August 2012 | viewed 0 times

  It has been about 9 weeks since the SP500 sold off losing nearly 10% over a 5 week span. As expected, investors turned bearish --…

• Investor Sentiment: The Bernanke Put Won't Die Easily

  Published 30 July 2012 | viewed 0 times

  There certainly is a lot of belief in the Bernanke put. And that belief exists whether you are bullish or bearish on the markets. If…

• The Price Action Is Not QE Like

  Published 24 July 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Think back to those QE days when the market went up day after day after day for months on end without more than a single…

• Investor Sentiment: 3 Basic Tenets to a Market Top

  Published 21 July 2012 | viewed 0 times

  When it comes to market sentiment there are 3 basic tenets that suggest to me that the current market dynamics will lead to a market…

• Real Time Recession Indicator

  Published 18 July 2012 | viewed 0 times

  A real time recession indicator constructed from a composite of leading economic indicators, high frequency economic data, and SP500 pricing model continues to suggest that…

• Utility Sector: Sell Signal

  Published 16 July 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Our Utility Sector trading model has produced a sell signal. We first went bullish on the Utility Sector on April 2, 2012 ("Utility Sector: Positive"),…

• Investor Sentiment: We Have Beaten This To Death

  Published 15 July 2012 | viewed 0 times

  I have definitely beaten the sentiment topic to death. And there is nothing new to add to the numerous posts in recent weeks on this…