Guy Lerner

Technical Take

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• Investor Sentiment: Smells Like A Top

  Published 28 November 2010 | viewed 0 times

  It was only 2 weeks ago that the "dumb money" indicator and Rydex market timers were bullish to an extreme degree and company insiders were…

• Investor Sentiment: Happy Thanksgiving

  Published 20 November 2010 | viewed 0 times

  It is hard to envision how any one data point will matter in this holiday shortened week. Nonetheless, looking beyond next week, I will repeat…

• The Technical Take: Copper

  Published 17 November 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Copper, the metal with the Ph.D. in economics, remains in a range and has failed to break down giving hope to equity bulls everywhere. Figure…

• The Will Robinson Signal

  Published 15 November 2010 | viewed 0 times

  With investors extremely bullish and company insiders extremely bearish and with the indicator constructed from the trends in gold, crude oil and yields on the…

• Investor Sentiment: Bear Signal

  Published 13 November 2010 | viewed 0 times

  The "dumb money" and the Rydex investor are extremely bullish. Company insiders are selling to an extreme degree. In aggregate, this is a bear signal.…

• Hold On A Second!

  Published 11 November 2010 | viewed 0 times

  It was only a week ago that I was looking at the Dollar and saying: "The inability of the Dollar to bounce when are investors…

• The Smart Money: Maybe Not So Smart

  Published 11 November 2010 | viewed 0 times

  If you were paying attention, you would have noticed that this past week's sentiment update did not contain the "Smart Money" indicator. This wasn't an…

• Investor Sentiment: Closing in on Extremes in Bullishness

  Published 08 November 2010 | viewed 0 times

  For the week ending November 5th, we find that the "dumb money" is extremely bullish, that insiders are increasing their selling, and that the Rydex…

• Wahhhh! We Need Sugar!

  Published 05 November 2010 | viewed 0 times

  This headline was taken from MarketWatch this morning. Figure 1. MarketWatch Oh my gosh, I thought, the markets must have been down oodles - all…

• The Technical Take: UUP

  Published 04 November 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bull (symbol: UUP). The indicator in the lower panel measures investor sentiment towards…

• Now Back To Our Regularly Scheduled Programming

  Published 03 November 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Ok, the elections are over. QE2 is in the books. The roadmap that I wrote about 2 weeks is coming together the way I saw…

• Investor Sentiment

  Published 01 November 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the S&P500, which shows the composite sentiment indicator in the middle panel. The indicator is constructed from the…

• Ooops! A Mis- Fire (Correction!)

  Published 01 November 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Our indicator that is constructed from the trends in crude oil, gold, and yields on the 10 year Treasury did NOT make it into the…

• Yields Are Rising, Equities to Face Headwinds

  Published 28 October 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Several weeks ago, I outlined my road map for the next couple of weeks, and this centered around rising Treasury yields. So far this "call"…

• Market Musings

  Published 26 October 2010 | viewed 0 times

  The markets are on hold until November 3 when the Fed will announce its intentions of asset purchases to assist the flailing economic recovery. While…

• Investor Sentiment: Lots of Bulls

  Published 24 October 2010 | viewed 0 times

  I always like to say that it takes "bulls to make a bull market." These are the kinds of market conditions that would best characterize…

• Higher Long Term Yields?

  Published 20 October 2010 | viewed 0 times

  In our "roadmap for the next couple of weeks", I stated that the market dynamics appear to be changing. I sense that yesterday's price action…

• Investor Sentiment: What Hasn't Been Decided

  Published 16 October 2010 | viewed 0 times

  The "dumb money" has become extremely bullish, and this is what one would expect when prices rise. However, it is within the current extremes of…

• A Roadmap For the Next Couple of Weeks

  Published 15 October 2010 | viewed 0 times

  I have been following the action in long bonds, and noting that it hasn't been good as support levels and trend channels have broken down.…

• Investor Sentiment: Neutral Redux

  Published 10 October 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Investor sentiment is neutral across the slate of indicators for the second week running. While the trend remains up, the best - most accelerated -…