Guy Lerner

Technical Take

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• SPY v. UDN

  Published 07 October 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P Depository Receipts ETF (symbol: SPY) in the upper panel versus the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bear…

• Persistence of the Trend: 10 year Treasury Yields

  Published 06 October 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the yield on the 10 year Treasury bond. The down trend persists, and this is confirmed by several…

• Investor Sentiment: Neutral

  Published 04 October 2010 | viewed 0 times

  For the past week, investor sentiment has turned neutral. The short covering portion of this rally is over, and stocks will need to advance on…

• Update On Two Trading Models

  Published 01 October 2010 | viewed 0 times

  This is an update on two trading models that I follow. Both have provided "buy signals" for the S&P500 within the last couple of weeks.…

• An Obvious and Important Divergence

  Published 28 September 2010 | viewed 0 times

  As you know, equities have been on a tear in September, and in this market environment, we also know most assets are highly correlated and…

• The Dollar Devaluation: Pushing On A String?

  Published 23 September 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Through the ups and downs of the stock market over the last 3 months, there has been one constant: the Dollar Index has gone down.…

• The Stock Market As A Voting Machine

  Published 21 September 2010 | viewed 0 times

  I am not sure I would ascribe the market's recent frenzy of buying activity to anything more than short covering. Yesterday's "breakout" seem to get…

• Investor Sentiment: Onus On The Bulls

  Published 19 September 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Three weeks ago investor sentiment was very bearish and this was a bull signal. As expected, stocks advanced rather handsomely. Of course, this was on…

• Investor Sentiment: Where Is The Value?

  Published 15 September 2010 | viewed 0 times

  In part 1 of this series, I put forth the notion that extreme data points, like investor sentiment, don't always result in a reversion to…

• Investor Sentiment: Composite Indicator

  Published 14 September 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Several weeks ago we had perfect alignment of our sentiment indicators, and since that time, the bounce has come, but it has come on lackluster…

• Investor Sentiment: Expected Bounce, But....

  Published 12 September 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Last week's perfect alignment of the sentiment indicators has led to the expected bounce, but buying conviction remains a big question as volume was the…

• Some Simple TA: TLT

  Published 10 September 2010 | viewed 0 times

  I have been bullish for some time on long term US Treasury bonds, and despite the recent pullback, I remain so. The longer term indicators…

• Investor Sentiment: New Thinking For An Old Tool

  Published 08 September 2010 | viewed 0 times

  I have spent a fair amount of time in these blog writings on deciphering where and how investors are positioned with their capital. We have…

• Investor Sentiment: Perfect Alignment

  Published 06 September 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Last week's bullish signal is this week's perfect four as all four sentiment indicators are issuing buy signals. Essentially, the "smart money" is buying while…

• Bearish Investor Sentiment Isn't Always a Bullish Signal

  Published 03 September 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Over the past couple of weeks, investors have turned decidedly bearish and as I pointed out in recent articles (click here and here), this is…

• What's The Message?

  Published 31 August 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Market analysis doesn't need to be too complicated to be good, and probably simpler is better. Heck, we have just spent the past 12 months…

• Investor Sentiment: Bull Signal

  Published 29 August 2010 | viewed 0 times

  As expected, the "dumb money" has turned bearish on the markets, and this is a bullish signal. The "Dumb Money" indicator (see figure 1) looks…

• This Is Bearish Price Action: XLF

  Published 26 August 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the S&P Select SPDR Financial Fund (symbol: XLF). The red and black dots are on the price chart…

• Shanghai Composite

  Published 26 August 2010 | viewed 0 times

  I last looked at the Shanghai Composite Index in May, 2010. (Click here and here.) My interest in the Chinese market is the possibility that…

• A Bond Bubble? Not Likely!

  Published 24 August 2010 | viewed 0 times

  My thoughts on the bond bubble can be summarized in two words: "not likely". When commentators have to tell you it is a bubble, it…