"No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich" - Lord Overstone
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Gold •144 days | 2,368.70 | +35.30 | +1.51% |
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Platinum •10 mins | 975.10 | +4.60 | +0.47% |
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WTI Crude •1 day | 71.24 | +1.14 | +1.63% |
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Gasoline •1 day | 2.061 | +0.002 | +0.10% |
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Ethanol •144 days | 2.161 | +0.000 | +0.00% |
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Silver •144 days | 30.82 | +1.16 | +3.92% |
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Silver • 144 days | 30.82 | +1.16 | +3.92% | |
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Copper • 144 days | 4.530 | +0.111 | +2.51% | |
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Brent Crude • 1 day | 75.17 | +0.94 | +1.27% | |
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Natural Gas • 1 day | 3.129 | -0.210 | -6.29% | |
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Heating Oil • 1 day | 2.275 | +0.001 | +0.02% |
Paul Kasriel
Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010
Biography
Paul joined the economic research unit of The Northern Trust Company in 1986 as Vice President and Economist, being named Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research in 2000. His economic and interest rate forecasts are used both internally and by clients. The accuracy of the Economic Research Department's forecasts has consistently been highly-ranked in the Blue Chip survey of about 50 forecasters over the years. To that point, Paul received the prestigious 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for having the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip survey participants for the years 2002 through 2005. The accuracy of Paul's 2008 economic forecast was ranked in the top five of The Wall Street Journal survey panel of economists. In January 2009, The Wall Street Journal and Forbes cited Paul as one of the few who identified early on the formation of the housing bubble and foresaw the economic and financial market havoc that would ensue after the bubble inevitably burst. Through written commentaries containing his straightforward and often nonconsensus analysis of economic and financial market issues, Paul has developed a loyal following in the financial community. The Northern's economic website was listed as one of the top ten most interesting by The Wall Street Journal. Paul is the co-author of a book entitled Seven Indicators That Move Markets.
Paul began his career as a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He has taught courses in finance at the DePaul University Kellstadt Graduate School of Business and at the Northwestern University Kellogg Graduate School of Management. Paul serves on the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association.
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Narrowing in April Trade Gap Suggests Weak Domestic Demand
In nominal terms, the U.S. April trade deficit narrowed significantly to $58.5 billion from March's downwardly revised gap of $62.4 billion. In price-adjusted terms, the…
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The ECB Takes Another Step Toward Reining In Global Liquidity
Today the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its policy interest rate 25 basis points to a level of 4.0%. Today's rate hike brings the cumulative…
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White House Buys into "Immaculate" Recovery Theme
Today the White House updated its economic forecast from that made last November. Back then, the Bush administration was expecting real GDP growth of 2.9%…
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May Retail Sales Looking Soft / Bernanke Appears To Be A Team Player
May Retail Sales Looking Soft Last week we learned that seasonally-adjusted car and truck sales were down a little from April, which were down a…
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Greg Ip Illustrates Why the Fed Should First, Do No Harm
In the June 4th edition of The Wall Street Journal, Greg Ip has written a piece explaining why the National Income and Product Account data,…
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Will the Real Private Nonfarm Payrolls Please Stand Up?
Each month the BLS heroically makes an adjustment to private nonfarm payrolls for the estimated hiring by new businesses not yet included in the BLS…
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Will China's "Stamping" Out of Stock Speculation Curb Overall Speculation?
Effective today, the Chinese Ministry of Finance increased its so-called stamp tax on stock market transactions from 0.1% to 0.3% in an effort to curb…
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Gene Epstein's Great American Savings (sic) Myth
In the cover article of the May 28 edition of Barron's (see The Great American Savings Myth) Gene Epstein, Barron's economics editor, argues that household…
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Waiting for Godot and Predicted Supply-Side Results
If ever there have been federal tax cuts tailored to produce supply-side economic behavior, they were implemented during President George W. Bush's administration starting in…
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Dollar Bills, Construction Employment And Undocumented Workers
Housing is in a relatively deep recession, yet the decline in residential construction employment (not including specialty contractors) has been relatively mild (see Chart 1).…
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Economy May Wake Up Without Consumers' Prodding?
In today's (May 21) Wall Street Journal, reporter Christopher Conkey wrote a piece suggesting that with 75% of the economy faltering, the other 25% was…
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People's Bank of China Takes With One Hand, Gives With The Other?
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced today that it was raising the required reserve ratio on its constituent banks by 0.5 percentage points to…
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Economic Growth Slowing To Stall Speed
Real gross domestic product of the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of only 1.3% in the first quarter of 2007, the slowest pace…
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Chicago Fed Index Points To Weak GDP Report On Friday
The Chicago Fed publishes a monthly national economic activity index (CFNAI). With the release of its March index today, we can now calculate an average…
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LEI and KRWI - It's Different This Time?
The bulls on the economy had better hope it's different this time because both the index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) and the Kasriel Recession…
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When The Facts Change, I Change My Model - What Do You Do?
On March 22, I published a commentary entitled "Recession Imminent? Both The LEI And The KRWI Are Flashing Warning". The LEI refers to the index…
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February PCE - Baby, It Was Cold Outside
In real terms, February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.2% after January's 0.3% rise. It was a 0.5% increase in real service sector spending…
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Q4 Corporate Profits Sink - Thank Goodness For Wall St.
The important new information in the Commerce Department's third guess at last year's fourthquarter GDP was its first guess at the same quarter's corporate profits.…
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Bernanke's JEC Testimony - Fed Still Worried Most About Inflation, However ...
Am I missing something? Has not the FOMC marginally moved toward - not all the way to - an agnostic position with regard to its…
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Recession Imminent? Both the LEI and the KRWI are Flashing Warning
Today the Conference Board reported that its index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for February declined by 0.5% on the heel's of January's downwardly revised…
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