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Paul Kasriel

Paul Kasriel

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010


Paul joined the economic research unit of The Northern Trust Company in 1986 as Vice President and Economist, being named Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research in 2000. His economic and interest rate forecasts are used both internally and by clients. The accuracy of the Economic Research Department's forecasts has consistently been highly-ranked in the Blue Chip survey of about 50 forecasters over the years. To that point, Paul received the prestigious 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for having the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip survey participants for the years 2002 through 2005. The accuracy of Paul's 2008 economic forecast was ranked in the top five of The Wall Street Journal survey panel of economists. In January 2009, The Wall Street Journal and Forbes cited Paul as one of the few who identified early on the formation of the housing bubble and foresaw the economic and financial market havoc that would ensue after the bubble inevitably burst. Through written commentaries containing his straightforward and often nonconsensus analysis of economic and financial market issues, Paul has developed a loyal following in the financial community. The Northern's economic website was listed as one of the top ten most interesting by The Wall Street Journal. Paul is the co-author of a book entitled Seven Indicators That Move Markets.

Paul began his career as a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He has taught courses in finance at the DePaul University Kellstadt Graduate School of Business and at the Northwestern University Kellogg Graduate School of Management. Paul serves on the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association.

  • Its Different This Time

    Published 08 February 2006 | viewed 5,137 times

    As the chart below indicates, it is different this time. With rare exceptions like the Great Depression and in the years right after WWII, households…

  • Corporate Profits Or Household Spending - Which Has Bigger Effect On Capex?

    Published 07 February 2006 | viewed 3,772 times

    In the current economic recovery/expansion, there has been a sharp rebound in corporate profits. Chart 1 shows that corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital…

  • The Yield Curve Inversion - It's Different This Time?

    Published 05 January 2006 | viewed 6,553 times

    In the waning trading sessions of 2005, the yield spread between the Treasury 10-year security and the Treasury 2-year security inverted slightly. That is, on…

  • Yield Curve Inversion - Necessary But Not Sufficient Recession Condition

    Published 21 December 2005 | viewed 10,692 times

    As shown in the chart below, each of the past six recessions (shaded areas) was preceded by an inversion in the spread between the Treasury…

  • Are Corporate Bondholders Chopped Liver?

    Published 17 December 2005 | viewed 5,744 times

    U.S. nonfinancial corporations have enjoyed a surge in internal funds (book profits plus depreciation minus accrued taxes and dividends paid) in recent quarters. As shown…

  • Households - Another Quarter Older and Deeper In Debt

    Published 13 December 2005 | viewed 8,950 times

    Here's the good news. In the third quarter, the market value of households' assets increased by 2.7%. Here's the bad news, the value of households'…

  • Appealing To Occam's Razor to Explain Gold Above $500

    Published 10 December 2005 | viewed 4,170 times

    On Wednesday, December 7, the London pm gold fix was $515.40 per troy ounce - the highest dollar price of gold since April 6, 1981.…

  • Yield Curve vs. S&P 500 - Which One Should We Believe?

    Published 07 December 2005 | viewed 6,484 times

    Both the shape of the yield curve and the behavior of the S&P 500 stock index are components of the Conference Board's index of Leading…

  • Gold-Price Adjusted, Were Still In A Recession

    Published 02 December 2005 | viewed 5,914 times

    On the op-ed page of the December 1 edition of the WSJ, Michael Darda argues that the proper deflator when discussing real economic variables is…

  • Greenspan's Legacy Of Debt

    Published 17 November 2005 | viewed 9,131 times

    On the day that Ben Bernanke, the nominee for the next Fed chairman, appears before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing, it is…

  • Greenspan - The Guardian of Price Stability?

    Published 16 November 2005 | viewed 5,098 times

    On the eve of Fed chairman nominee Ben Bernanke's Senate confirmation hearing, there is the question whether he will be the same kind of guardian…

  • Chairman Bernanke: The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same

    Published 29 October 2005 | viewed 4,727 times

    The first word out of Ben Bernanke's mouth after President Bush nominated him to succeed Alan Greenspan as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board was…

  • The Fed: No Way Out?

    Published 24 October 2005 | viewed 7,064 times

    The Fed is running out of "good" options. As shown in Chart 1, for the first time since 1995, the real M2 money supply is…

  • Hurricane Katrina - A Supply Shock Interacts With Preexisting Demand Restraint

    Published 07 September 2005 | viewed 9,824 times

    Hurricane Katrina is likely to end up being the most economically-disruptive U.S. natural disaster in years. The reason for this is that the nation's energy…

  • A Heretic On The FOMC?

    Published 01 September 2005 | viewed 6,998 times

    I almost fell out of my chair when reading the minutes of the August 9 FOMC meeting. What rocked me? The following sentence: "Another participant…

  • Hurricane Katrina Had No Silver Lining!

    Published 31 August 2005 | viewed 7,837 times

    Inevitably, some perky economic analyst is going to say that despite the death and destruction Hurricane Katrina visited on the poor souls who populate Gulf…

  • INXS

    Published 26 August 2005 | viewed 5,526 times

    This is an oddz and endz piece about excesses I perceive in the U.S. economy. The first such excess has to do with household spending.…

  • Greenspan Has Spoken, China Is Revaluing And I'm Reevaluating

    Published 26 July 2005 | viewed 6,836 times

    Don't fight the Fed. That's true for investors as well as economic forecasters. I think that, in the current environment, a fed funds rate in…

  • Falling Bond Yields Are A Sign Of Easier Monetary Conditions?

    Published 09 July 2005 | viewed 5,236 times

    This commentary is dedicated to the memory of Robert Laurent, who passed away all too suddenly and prematurely on June 30th. I had the privilege…

  • Political Economic Reasons Why The Fed Is On The Cusp Of Pausing

    Published 01 July 2005 | viewed 5,756 times

    Although the consensus thinks it is a slam dunk that the Fed will raise the funds rate another 25 basis points when the FOMC convenes…