"No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich" - Lord Overstone
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Gold •141 days | 2,368.70 | +35.30 | +1.51% |
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Platinum •15 mins | 968.10 | -2.40 | -0.25% |
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WTI Crude •10 mins | 70.14 | +0.04 | +0.06% |
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Gasoline •32 mins | 2.054 | -0.005 | -0.26% |
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Ethanol •141 days | 2.161 | +0.000 | +0.00% |
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Silver •141 days | 30.82 | +1.16 | +3.92% |
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Silver • 141 days | 30.82 | +1.16 | +3.92% | |
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Copper • 141 days | 4.530 | +0.111 | +2.51% | |
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Brent Crude • 35 mins | 74.23 | +1.42 | +1.95% | |
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Natural Gas • 10 mins | 3.428 | +0.089 | +2.67% | |
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Heating Oil • 32 mins | 2.271 | -0.003 | -0.13% |
Paul Kasriel
Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010
Biography
Paul joined the economic research unit of The Northern Trust Company in 1986 as Vice President and Economist, being named Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research in 2000. His economic and interest rate forecasts are used both internally and by clients. The accuracy of the Economic Research Department's forecasts has consistently been highly-ranked in the Blue Chip survey of about 50 forecasters over the years. To that point, Paul received the prestigious 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for having the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip survey participants for the years 2002 through 2005. The accuracy of Paul's 2008 economic forecast was ranked in the top five of The Wall Street Journal survey panel of economists. In January 2009, The Wall Street Journal and Forbes cited Paul as one of the few who identified early on the formation of the housing bubble and foresaw the economic and financial market havoc that would ensue after the bubble inevitably burst. Through written commentaries containing his straightforward and often nonconsensus analysis of economic and financial market issues, Paul has developed a loyal following in the financial community. The Northern's economic website was listed as one of the top ten most interesting by The Wall Street Journal. Paul is the co-author of a book entitled Seven Indicators That Move Markets.
Paul began his career as a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He has taught courses in finance at the DePaul University Kellstadt Graduate School of Business and at the Northwestern University Kellogg Graduate School of Management. Paul serves on the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association.
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Recession Watch Perhaps, But Not Yet Warning
Every recession commencing with the one in 1970 has been preceded by the combination of a negative spread between the Treasury 10-year yield and the…
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The Inverted Yield Curve - Is It Really Different This Time?
One of the components of the index of Leading Economic Indicators is the spread between the 10-year nominal Treasury yield and the federal funds rate…
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What's Down With Nominal Retail Sales Growth?
Asha will do her usual excellent job of synthesizing the February retail sales report and highlighting the important implications of it. But I wanted to…
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The Medical Care Component of Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index - Flavor of the Week
Among the several economic reports due for publication this week -- new home sales, existing home sales, consumer confidence measures, durable goods orders, preliminary estimate…
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Homeownership Rate and Sub-Prime Mortgages - A Positive Correlation?
Chart 1 shows that the national homeownership rate (the percentage of occupied housing units that are owner occupied housing units) started rising sharply around 1995,…
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President Moskow: You Funded It, Now Use It
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago economic research department calculates an index of economic activity known as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI). The…
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Housing Has Bottomed? Talk To Lennar
The housing sales data - new and used - for November suggested to some that the residential real estate sector, after having been in a…
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Copper Price Corroborates Manufacturing Slowdown
The price of copper is sometimes referred to as "Everyman's Economist" because it is highly correlated with the behavior of the manufacturing sector, as illustrated…
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Wholesale Inflation - Energy And Cars Taketh Away And Giveth Back
In September and October, energy prices at the wholesale level fell. In November, they rose. In October, motor vehicle prices at the wholesale level fell.…
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Rising Inventories and Price Cuts = Bottom of the Housing Recession?
Housing starts in November jumped 6.7% after slumping 13.7% in October. So, October marks the bottom of the housing production recession, right? Doubtful. For starters,…
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U.S. Current Account Deficit - Foreign Investors Making It Up On Volume?
What I found most interesting about the third quarter current account data was not that the U.S. deficit ran at a record annualized rate of…
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Festivus Flow-of-Funds Stocking Stuffers
I love the Fed's quarterly flow-of-funds report. It usually is the mother lode of enlightening economic nuggets of information. And the Fed's latest release on…
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Goods-Producing Sectors Are Where The Cyclical Action Is
Two economic reports released last week, the November ISM non-manufacturing survey and the November employment report, were interpreted by some that the overall economy was…
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What's the Fed up to when Yield Curves "De-Invert"?
The chart below shows a history of the spread between the yield on the 10-year Treasury security and the fed funds rate starting in 1965.…
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The "Carry" Trade in U.S. Housing Looks to be Over
In the late 1970s, buying a house was a "no-brainer," inasmuch as the annual rate of price appreciation on single-family existing homes exceeded the mortgage…
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3Q Labor Cost Data Point To Weak Profit Growth
In addition to revisions to third-quarter GDP data, the Commerce Department will release its first estimate of third-quarter corporate profits tomorrow, November 29. As Chart…
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Are Households Saving Their Pump Savings?
The fall in gasoline prices was supposed to provide some high-octane fuel to retail sales. But for two months in a row, nominal retail sales…
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A Solution to Fisher's Lament
On November 2nd, Dallas Fed President Fisher lamented that monetary policy mistakes might have been made in the past on the basis of erroneous first-published…
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Near a Bottom in Housing?
On Thursday November 2nd, Reuters News reported that Fed Governor Bies was of the opinion that the bulk of the housing recession was behind us.…
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Professor Siegel Evidently Has Little New To Say and Neither Do I
Some of you, not many, have wondered why The Econtrarian has not been published since May 3, 2006. The principal reason for The Econtrarian's hiatus…
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