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Paul Kasriel

Paul Kasriel

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010


Paul joined the economic research unit of The Northern Trust Company in 1986 as Vice President and Economist, being named Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research in 2000. His economic and interest rate forecasts are used both internally and by clients. The accuracy of the Economic Research Department's forecasts has consistently been highly-ranked in the Blue Chip survey of about 50 forecasters over the years. To that point, Paul received the prestigious 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for having the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip survey participants for the years 2002 through 2005. The accuracy of Paul's 2008 economic forecast was ranked in the top five of The Wall Street Journal survey panel of economists. In January 2009, The Wall Street Journal and Forbes cited Paul as one of the few who identified early on the formation of the housing bubble and foresaw the economic and financial market havoc that would ensue after the bubble inevitably burst. Through written commentaries containing his straightforward and often nonconsensus analysis of economic and financial market issues, Paul has developed a loyal following in the financial community. The Northern's economic website was listed as one of the top ten most interesting by The Wall Street Journal. Paul is the co-author of a book entitled Seven Indicators That Move Markets.

Paul began his career as a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He has taught courses in finance at the DePaul University Kellstadt Graduate School of Business and at the Northwestern University Kellogg Graduate School of Management. Paul serves on the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association.

  • Payrolls And Other Bearish Data Are Cause For A Pause At The June Meeting

    Published 03 June 2006 | viewed 4,400 times

    Household Survey - The unemployment rate edged down to 4.6% in May after a string of three monthly readings of 4.7%. However, there are mixed…

  • May 10 FOMC Minutes - Open Mouth or Open Market Policy?

    Published 31 May 2006 | viewed 4,285 times

    On balance, the May 10 FOMC minutes read more hawkish than Bernanke's JEC testimony and perhaps even the May 10 policy announcement. There was the…

  • Real Retail Sales Off To Slow Start in Q2

    Published 24 May 2006 | viewed 4,890 times

    Nominal retail sales were reported to be up 0.5% in April. If these nominal sales are adjusted by the CPI for commodities (goods as opposed…

  • Fed Is Finding Confirmation Of Its Forecast

    Published 16 May 2006 | viewed 6,255 times

    "The Committee sees growth as likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged…

  • Federal Reserve And Inflation Targeting - First Do No Harm

    Published 05 May 2006 | viewed 5,010 times

    Appreciating that consumer price inflation is a monetary phenomenon and that the lags between policy actions and the manifestation of consumer price inflation are long…

  • GDP Is A Terrific Coincident Indicator

    Published 03 May 2006 | viewed 6,957 times

    But it is a lousy leading indicator. For example, in 1990:Q1, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.70% quarter-to-quarter -- its fastest growth…

  • Bernanke Hints at Near-Term FOMC Pause

    Published 28 April 2006 | viewed 3,813 times

    In his testimony to the Joint Economic Committee today, Fed Chairman Bernanke sent a strong hint of an imminent FOMC pause in its funds rate…

  • The LEI - The Rodney Dangerfield of Economic Statistics

    Published 23 April 2006 | viewed 4,975 times

    On Thursday, the Conference board released its index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for March. The Conference Board reported that the LEI fell by 0.1%…

  • Commodity Prices and Consumer Prices - Just The Facts, Ma'am

    Published 21 April 2006 | viewed 5,468 times

    Industrial commodity prices have surged in the past few years with everything from crude oil to copper registering record high prices. The Fed has expressed…

  • Inflation Targeting - Is Bernanke Really An Expert On The Great Depression?

    Published 31 March 2006 | viewed 7,183 times

    The new Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, is known for (at least) two things - his desire for a formal Fed inflation target and his knowledge…

  • Fifteen In A Row For FOMC, Market Increases Bet On Sweet Sixteen

    Published 30 March 2006 | viewed 4,781 times

    Or maybe it's the final four, as Lehman sees it. As expected, the FOMC lifted its target fed funds rate another 25 basis points up…

  • Why The Fed Might Want To Take A Breather After Tuesday's Hike

    Published 28 March 2006 | viewed 5,620 times

    The drama on Tuesday around 2:15 pm EST won't be that the Fed raised the funds rate by 25 basis points for the fifteenth consecutive…

  • Fact-Checking Bernanke's Yield Curve Comments

    Published 23 March 2006 | viewed 5,741 times

    I am not going to summarize Bernanke's remarks to the Economic Club of New York of last night entitled "Reflections on the Yield Curve and…

  • 2005 Flow-of-Funds Data - I Report, You Decide

    Published 19 March 2006 | viewed 6,953 times

    Households' cash outlays for goods, services and nonfinancial assets (e.g. houses, SUVs) were approximately $662 billion more than their cash inflows in 2005 - a…

  • Is Dave Leonhardt A Renter?

    Published 07 March 2006 | viewed 8,616 times

    David Leonhardt, a journalist at The New York Times, wrote an article in the March 1 edition entitled "Don't Fear the Bubble That Bursts" (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/01/business/01leonhardt.html).…

  • Be Bullish On China/India Because of Their Supply, Not Demand

    Published 03 March 2006 | viewed 4,141 times

    In the March 1 FT, Todd Thompson argues that one reason to be optimistic about the economic growth prospects for China and India is the…

  • Bernanke and Co. - Put Your High Beams On!

    Published 19 February 2006 | viewed 7,107 times

    "[T]he risk exists that, with aggregate demand exhibiting considerable momentum, output could overshoot its sustainable path, leading ultimately--in the absence of countervailing monetary policy action--to…

  • WaMu - A Leading Indicator of Initial Jobless Claims?

    Published 17 February 2006 | viewed 4,478 times

    Yesterday Washington Mutual Inc. (WaMu), a national depository institution with a concentration in the home mortgage business, announced that it was eliminating 10 of its…

  • Chairman Bernanke's Debut

    Published 17 February 2006 | viewed 4,462 times

    Although I believe that the February economic data will be considerably softer than those of January, as things now stand, new Fed Chairman Bernanke gave…

  • The Bell Tolls For Toll Bros.

    Published 09 February 2006 | viewed 6,616 times

    The opening bell on Wall Street was tolling for Toll Bros., the upscale homebuilder, who announced prior to the opening of trading that its orders…