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Doug Noland

Doug Noland

Credit Bubble Bulletin

Contributor since: 26 Jan 2015


I just wrapped up 25 years (persevering) as a "professional bear." My lucky break came in late-1989, when I was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco. Working as a short-side trader, analyst and portfolio manager during the great nineties bull market - for one of the most brilliant individuals I've met - was an exciting, demanding and, in the end, a grueling and absolutely invaluable learning experience. Later in the nineties, I had stints at Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners. In January 1999, I began my 16 year run with PrudentBear, working as strategist and portfolio manager with David Tice in Dallas until the bear funds were sold in December 2008.

  • Just the Facts

    Published 02 October 2017 | viewed 0 times

    My apologies.  Unexpected demands on my time today. For the Week: The S&P500 increased 0.7% (up 12.5% y-t-d), and the Dow added 0.2% (up 13.4%).…

  • Q2 2017 Z.1 Report

    Published 23 September 2017 | viewed 0 times

    I found the Fed's latest (Q2) Z.1 report particularly interesting. It brought back memories. In general, debt growth was steady and rather uninteresting. As such,…

  • Monetary Disorder

    Published 16 September 2017 | viewed 0 times

    Global Credit, Bubble and market analysis is turning more interesting. China August Credit data were out Friday. Total (aggregate) Social Financing jumped to 1.48 TN…

  • Strong Data and Conspicuous Bubble Excess

    Published 02 September 2017 | viewed 0 times

    Analysis surrounding economic data is especially interesting these days. As always, there's ample opportunity to pick and choose data points to support a particular perspective.…

  • Yellen in Jackson Hole

    Published 26 August 2017 | viewed 0 times

    "A resilient financial system is critical to a dynamic global economy -- the subject of this conference. A well-functioning financial system facilitates productive investment and…

  • Crisis of Confidence

    Published 19 August 2017 | viewed 0 times

    Global markets are indicating heightened vulnerability. Thursday trading saw the S&P500 decline 1.54%, the second biggest decline of 2017. The session also saw the junk…

  • Doubled-Down

    Published 12 August 2017 | viewed 0 times

    "The real trouble with this world of ours in not that it is an unreasonable world, nor even that it is a reasonable one. The…

  • Data and a Carefree Bond Market

    Published 05 August 2017 | viewed 0 times

    July non-farm payrolls gained 209,000 versus estimates of 180,000. June payrolls were revised 9,000 higher to 231,000. It's worth noting that manufacturing added 16,000 jobs…

  • Five Years of Whatever it Takes

    Published 29 July 2017 | viewed 0 times

    July 25 - Bloomberg (Paul Gordon and Carolynn Look): "Five years ago today, Mario Draghi was talking about bumblebees. The European Central Bank president's speech…

  • New Age Mandate

    Published 22 July 2017 | viewed 0 times

    A journalist's question during Mario Draghi's ECB post-meeting press conference: "...There was a sharp reaction from financial markets to your Sintra speech. You must have…

  • Yellen on Inflation

    Published 16 July 2017 | viewed 0 times

    Global Markets rallied sharply this week. The DJIA rose 223 points to a record 21,638. The S&P500 gained 1.4% to a new all-time high. The…

  • Wonderful Monetary Policy and Beautiful Deleveragings

    Published 08 July 2017 | viewed 0 times

    "Generally speaking (depending on the country), it is appropriate for central banks to lessen the aggressiveness of their unconventional policies because these policies have successfully…

  • The Road to Nornaliization

    Published 01 July 2017 | viewed 0 times

    The past week provided important support for the "peak monetary stimulus" thesis. There is mounting evidence that global central bankers are monitoring inflating asset prices…

  • Washington Finance and Bubble Illusion

    Published 25 June 2017 | viewed 0 times

    June 18 - Financial Times (Mohamed El-Erian): "In hiking rates and, more notably, reaffirming its forward policy guidance and setting out plans for the phased…

  • Peak Stimulus Has Passed

    Published 17 June 2017 | viewed 0 times

    Bloomberg Radio/Television's Tom Keene, Wednesday June 14, 2017: "Professor, what is the question you want to ask chair Yellen at the press conference here in…

  • Crowded Longs, Shorts and a New Z1

    Published 10 June 2017 | viewed 0 times

    It was a week that saw Mario Draghi cling stubbornly to ultra-dovish monetary policy, the UK's Brexit strategy thrown into even greater disarray after Prime…

  • Liquidity Trade

    Published 03 June 2017 | viewed 0 times

    It's not quite 1999 at this point, but it's been moving in that direction. In about five months' time, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has posted…

  • Moody's Downgrades China

    Published 28 May 2017 | viewed 0 times

    Marie Diron, Moody's associate managing director, Sovereign Risk Group, commenting Wednesday on Moody's Chinese downgrade (Bloomberg Television): "It is likely to be a very medium-term…

  • Just the Facts

    Published 20 May 2017 | viewed 0 times

    For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.4% (up 6.4% y-t-d), and the Dow declined 0.4% (up 5.3%). The Utilities lost 0.5% (up 6.1%). The Banks…

  • The VIX and the Scheme

    Published 13 May 2017 | viewed 0 times

    There was little market reaction to Emanuel Macron's widely-anticipated big victory in the French presidential election. The euro actually retreated somewhat, in a "sell the…