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Doug Noland

Doug Noland

Credit Bubble Bulletin

Contributor since: 26 Jan 2015


I just wrapped up 25 years (persevering) as a "professional bear." My lucky break came in late-1989, when I was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco. Working as a short-side trader, analyst and portfolio manager during the great nineties bull market - for one of the most brilliant individuals I've met - was an exciting, demanding and, in the end, a grueling and absolutely invaluable learning experience. Later in the nineties, I had stints at Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners. In January 1999, I began my 16 year run with PrudentBear, working as strategist and portfolio manager with David Tice in Dallas until the bear funds were sold in December 2008.

  • Permanent Market Support Operations

    Published 17 February 2018 | viewed 0 times

    U.S. stocks posted the strongest week of gains since 2013 (would have been 2011 if not for late-day selling). The S&P500 surged 4.3%, and the…

  • Subprime and Short Vol

    Published 10 February 2018 | viewed 0 times

    February 6 - Wall Street Journal (Spencer Jakab): "Only very rarely has a trade gone from being so good to being so bad so quickly.…

  • The Grand Crowded Trade of Financial Speculation

    Published 03 February 2018 | viewed 0 times

    Even well into 2017, variations of the "secular stagnation" thesis remained popular within the economics community. Accelerating synchronized global growth notwithstanding, there's been this enduring…

  • America First and the Decapitation of King Dollar

    Published 27 January 2018 | viewed 0 times

    The U.S. ran a $71.6 billion Goods Trade Deficit in December, the largest goods deficit since July 2008's $76.88 billion. The U.S. likely accumulated a…

  • You Can Only Worry For So Long

    Published 20 January 2018 | viewed 0 times

    Ten-year Treasury yields jumped 11 bps this week to 2.66%, moving decisively above the key 2.60% technical level - to the highest yields since July…

  • Mania

    Published 13 January 2018 | viewed 0 times

    This might be the most fascinating market backdrop of my career. Not yet as dramatic as 1987, 1990, 1994, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2007,…

  • Issue 2018: Market Structure

    Published 06 January 2018 | viewed 0 times

    Financial conditions are much too loose. They remain too loose at home; they remain too loose abroad. January 3 - ETF.com (Heather Bell): "...ETF flows…

  • A Phenomenal Year

    Published 30 December 2017 | viewed 0 times

    2017 was phenomenal in so many ways. The year will be remembered for a tumultuous first year of the Trump Presidency, the passage of major…

  • Epic Stimulus Overload

    Published 23 December 2017 | viewed 0 times

    Ten-year Treasury yields jumped 13 bps this week to 2.48%, the high going back to March. German bund yields rose 12 bps to 0.42%. U.S.…

  • Chronicling for Posterity

    Published 16 December 2017 | viewed 0 times

    Janet Yellen's Wednesday news conference was her final as Fed chair. Dr. Yellen has a long and distinguished career as an economist and public servant.…

  • Q3 2017 Flow of Funds

    Published 09 December 2017 | viewed 0 times

    In nominal dollars, Total U.S. System (Non-Financial, Financial and Foreign) borrowings expanded $1.007 TN during the third quarter to a record $68.012 TN. Total Non-Financial…

  • China Initiating a Global Bear Market?

    Published 02 December 2017 | viewed 0 times

    Chair Yellen is widely lauded for her accomplishments at the Federal Reserve. For the most part, her four-year term at the helm of the Fed…

  • Just the Facts

    Published 25 November 2017 | viewed 0 times

    For the Week: The S&P500 gained 0.9% (up 16.2% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 0.9% (up 19.2%). The Utilities added 0.2% (up 14.4%). The Banks…

  • Not Clear What That Means

    Published 18 November 2017 | viewed 0 times

    November 15 - Bloomberg (Nishant Kumar and Suzy Waite): "Hedge-fund manager David Einhorn said the problems that caused the global financial crisis a decade ago…

  • 'Money' on the Move

    Published 11 November 2017 | viewed 0 times

    It's been awhile since I've used this terminology. But global markets this week recalled the old "Bubble in Search of a Pin." It's too early…

  • End of an Era

    Published 04 November 2017 | viewed 0 times

    Of the diverse strains of inflation, asset inflation is by far the most dangerous. A bout of consumer price inflation would be generally recognized as…

  • Must Stop Digging

    Published 28 October 2017 | viewed 0 times

    Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Intel and Draghi all handily beat expectations. Booming technology earnings confirm the degree to which Bubble Dynamics have become entrenched within the…

  • Arms Race in Bubbles

    Published 21 October 2017 | viewed 0 times

    The week left me with an uneasy feeling. There were a number of articles noting the 30-year anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash. I…

  • Arms Race

    Published 14 October 2017 | viewed 0 times

    Bloomberg: "Treasuries Surge as December Hike Odds Drop After CPI Miss." Year-over-year CPI was up 2.2% in September, with consumer inflation above 2% y-o-y for…

  • Kevin Warsh to Lead the Fed in a New Direction

    Published 07 October 2017 | viewed 0 times

    The threat of nuclear crisis with North Korea. Two destructive hurricanes. Puerto Rico devastated and about out of money. The start of a major comprehensive…