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Doug Noland

Doug Noland

Credit Bubble Bulletin

Contributor since: 26 Jan 2015


I just wrapped up 25 years (persevering) as a "professional bear." My lucky break came in late-1989, when I was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco. Working as a short-side trader, analyst and portfolio manager during the great nineties bull market - for one of the most brilliant individuals I've met - was an exciting, demanding and, in the end, a grueling and absolutely invaluable learning experience. Later in the nineties, I had stints at Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners. In January 1999, I began my 16 year run with PrudentBear, working as strategist and portfolio manager with David Tice in Dallas until the bear funds were sold in December 2008.

  • Scary Time

    Published 16 July 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Just another week of the "new normal". Celebratory talk of "helicopter money," a melt-up in stocks, another terrorist attack in France and a coup attempt…

  • Don't Mess with Turkey

    Published 23 July 2016 | viewed 0 times

    July 20 - Financial Times (Eric Platt): "The Turkish lira weakened a new record low against the greenback on Wednesday after the country was cut…

  • Greenspan on Bubbles

    Published 02 July 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Bloomberg's Tom Keene (Monday, June 27, 2016): "If I take Paul Krugman and Alan Greenspan's primal cry, 'we want simple models.' Is our solution now…

  • Majority Mad as Hell

    Published 25 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

    "In this unique exploration of the role of risk in our society, Peter Bernstein argues that the notion of bringing risk under control is one…

  • Historic Crazy

    Published 11 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Friday was one of those market days that left an uncomfortable feeling in the pit of my stomach. U.S. markets have been resilient thus far,…

  • Reminiscing about 2012

    Published 18 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Credit booms are powerfully reinforcing. New Credit provides additional purchasing power that spurs spending, economic output, corporate earnings/cash-flow and income growth. Monetary expansions, as well,…

  • Monkey with Money at Your Own Peril

    Published 04 June 2016 | viewed 0 times

    With markets on the rather quiet side, I awoke Friday anticipating a more theoretical focus for this week's CBB. But then May's surprisingly dismal jobs…

  • Just the Facts

    Published 28 May 2016 | viewed 0 times

    For the week: The S&P500 jumped 2.3% (up 2.7% y-t-d), and the Dow gained 2.1% (up 2.6%). The Utilities increased 1.0% (up 11.7%). The Banks…

  • Unambiguous Signals Disregarded

    Published 21 May 2016 | viewed 0 times

    May 20 - Bloomberg (Susanne Walker Barton): "Treasuries fell, heading for their biggest weekly drop since November, as Federal Reserve officials indicated they're considering a…

  • Ominous Portents

    Published 14 May 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Friday headlines from Bloomberg: "Retail Sales Rise Most in a Year, Marking U.S. Consumer Comeback" and "Consumers Turn Out to Be U.S. Growth Lifeline After…

  • Inflection Point for EM

    Published 07 May 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Don't let the relatively tame week in the S&P 500 engender complacency. Perhaps it was not obvious, yet the trading week provided important confirmation for…

  • The Red Line

    Published 30 April 2016 | viewed 0 times

    April 25 - Financial Times (Jennifer Hughes): "Stand easy -- or easier, at least. Ten basis points might not be the biggest one-day change for…

  • More on China

    Published 23 April 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Let's return to last week's theme of China as the "marginal source of global Credit and liquidity" for a runaway global Bubble that has been…

  • Pushing Desperate Measures Too Far

    Published 16 April 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Another unsettled week for global markets. Japan's Nikkei equities index rallied 6.5%. Italian bank stocks surged 10%, with the Europe STOXX 600 Bank Index up…

  • Bubble Economy or Not?

    Published 09 April 2016 | viewed 0 times

    "The US economy has made tremendous progress in recovering from the damage from the financial crisis. Slowly but surely the labor market is healing. For…

  • Another Coin in the Fuse Box

    Published 02 April 2016 | viewed 0 times

    It's not as if we're lacking history as to how this works. Some two decades ago the Greenspan Fed's "asymmetrical" (baby-step "tightening" measures versus aggressive…

  • All is Not Well

    Published 25 March 2016 | viewed 0 times

    The 1987 stock market crash raised concerns for the dangers associated with mounting U.S. "twin deficits." Fiscal and trade deficits were reflective of poor economic…

  • Q4 2015 Flow of Funds

    Published 19 March 2016 | viewed 0 times

    I'd been waiting patiently for the Fed's Q4 2015 Z.1 "flow of funds" report. The fourth quarter was a period of financial instability and tightened…

  • Thesis Update

    Published 12 March 2016 | viewed 0 times

    With global risk markets staging a significant rally, it's an appropriate time to update my bursting global Bubble thesis. Three weeks ago I titled a…

  • Facts Tonight and Commentary This Weekend

    Published 12 March 2016 | viewed 0 times

    For the week: The S&P500 gained 1.1% (down 1.1% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 1.2% (down %1.2). The Utilities jumped 2.4% (up 11.3%). The Banks…