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Doug Noland

Doug Noland

Credit Bubble Bulletin

Contributor since: 26 Jan 2015

Biography

I just wrapped up 25 years (persevering) as a "professional bear." My lucky break came in late-1989, when I was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco. Working as a short-side trader, analyst and portfolio manager during the great nineties bull market - for one of the most brilliant individuals I've met - was an exciting, demanding and, in the end, a grueling and absolutely invaluable learning experience. Later in the nineties, I had stints at Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners. In January 1999, I began my 16 year run with PrudentBear, working as strategist and portfolio manager with David Tice in Dallas until the bear funds were sold in December 2008.

  • Quasi-Capitalism and Crowded Trades

    Published 01 May 2015 | viewed 0 times

    May 1 - Reuters (Jamie McGeever): "The calm on global financial markets masks a growing threat to their smooth functioning should shrinking liquidity morph into…

  • Pro-Bubble

    Published 24 April 2015 | viewed 0 times

    The lesson should have been learned by 1994. After a period of extraordinarily loose monetary policy, bloody market chaos was unleashed when the Fed bumped…

  • Horrible Risk Versus Reward

    Published 17 April 2015 | viewed 0 times

    I found myself this week thinking back to last May, shortly after Ben Bernanke began his (reportedly) $250,000 dinner meetings. May 6 - Bloomberg: "David…

  • A Tale of Two Entangled Super Bubbles

    Published 10 April 2015 | viewed 0 times

    "This past month may be remembered as the moment the United States lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system. True, there…

  • A Progressively Maladjusted 'Economic Sphere'

    Published 27 March 2015 | viewed 0 times

    March 27 - Bloomberg (by Christopher CondonIan Katz): "Federal Reserve officials, fresh from the latest round of tests designed to ensure the safety of the…

  • True Ultra-Dovishness

    Published 20 March 2015 | viewed 0 times

    The S&P500 rallied 45 points (2.2%) intraday on Federal Reserve Wednesday, to end the session with a 1.2% gain. The dollar index traded with an…

  • Financial Repression Authority with Doug Noland

    Published 17 March 2015 | viewed 0 times

    Special Guest: Douglas C. Noland, former Vice President, Federated Income Securities Trust and senior portfolio manager of Federated Prudent Bear Fund, Federated Prudent DollarBear Fund…

  • EM Contagion and a New Z.1

    Published 13 March 2015 | viewed 0 times

    With the (king) U.S. dollar index trading Friday above 100 for the first time since 2003, the unfolding EM - ongoing "global reflation trade" -…

  • King Dollar Tipping Point

    Published 07 March 2015 | viewed 0 times

    The U.S. unemployment rate has dropped to 5.5%, cut almost in half from the 2009 high. The rate is down 1.2 percentage points from a…

  • Periphery Fragility List

    Published 28 February 2015 | viewed 0 times

    There's a natural ebb and flow to financial markets. It can be clear-cut Greed versus Fear - but often it's more leaning Risk Embracement or…

  • The Curse of Moneyness

    Published 21 February 2015 | viewed 0 times

    "In all speculative episodes there is always an element of pride in discovering what is seemingly new and greatly rewarding in the way of financial…

  • Store of Value

    Published 14 February 2015 | viewed 0 times

    If I had my druthers, politics would be kept a safe distance apart from economic analysis. The economics profession, however, is guided by a policymaking…

  • What Happened to Deleveraging?

    Published 07 February 2015 | viewed 0 times

    Bloomberg's Simon Kennedy did a nice job with "A World Overflowing With Debt," as did the Financial Times' Ralph Atkins with "Debt Mountains Spark Fears…

  • Dangerous Games of Chicken

    Published 31 January 2015 | viewed 0 times

    It's difficult to imagine more challenging analysis. The global nature of the current Credit Bubble creates dynamics and complexities dissimilar to previous Bubble cycles. There…

  • Draghi's Do Whatever it Takes Beats Estimates

    Published 26 January 2015 | viewed 0 times

    Originally posted January 23, 2015. As always, the CBB is expression of my own views. It is in no way intended as investment advice. My…