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Doug Noland

Doug Noland

Credit Bubble Bulletin

Contributor since: 26 Jan 2015


I just wrapped up 25 years (persevering) as a "professional bear." My lucky break came in late-1989, when I was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco. Working as a short-side trader, analyst and portfolio manager during the great nineties bull market - for one of the most brilliant individuals I've met - was an exciting, demanding and, in the end, a grueling and absolutely invaluable learning experience. Later in the nineties, I had stints at Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners. In January 1999, I began my 16 year run with PrudentBear, working as strategist and portfolio manager with David Tice in Dallas until the bear funds were sold in December 2008.

  • Party Crashing

    Published 03 October 2015 | viewed 0 times

    October 2 - Reuters (Ann Saphir): "Letting the U.S. economy run at 'high-pressure' for a while by keeping interest rates relatively low will help push…

  • New World Disorder

    Published 26 September 2015 | viewed 0 times

    The Federal Reserve is flailing and global currency markets are in disarray. Notably, the Brazilian real dropped more than 10% in five sessions, before Thursday's…

  • Now What?

    Published 19 September 2015 | viewed 0 times

    September 18 - Reuters: "The world's leading central banks are facing the risk that their massive efforts to revive economic growth could be dragged down…

  • China Hardens Peg and Brazil Goes to Junk

    Published 12 September 2015 | viewed 0 times

    Let's this week begin with a cursory glance at the world through the eyes of the bulls. First, the global backdrop provides the Fed convenient…

  • The Unwind

    Published 05 September 2015 | viewed 0 times

    Too often it's as if I'm analyzing an altogether different world than conventional analysts. My strong preference is to be viewed as an adept and…

  • 'Carry Trades' and Trend-Following Strategies

    Published 29 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

    The week commenced with yet another "flash crash." The August 2015 version was notable for its ferocity and impressive global scope. Then there was the…

  • It's Always Worse Than You Think

    Published 22 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

    August 17 - Reuters Breakingviews (Edward Chancellor): "Financial markets, like religions, are faith-based networks. The complex structures of assets and liabilities that comprise markets are…

  • China

    Published 15 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

    I figured I would surprise readers this week and focus on China. There's been a lot written and spoken this past week. My challenge is…

  • Core of the Core

    Published 08 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

    There just can't be a more fascinating endeavor in finance (anywhere?) than analyzing Credit and speculative Bubbles. Such undertakings do not come without challenges. I've…

  • Money and Spheres

    Published 01 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

    In a tiny subsection of the analytical world, analysis is becoming more pointed and poignant. I appreciate Bill Gross's August commentary, where he concluded: "Say…

  • Same Old Same Old

    Published 25 July 2015 | viewed 0 times

    A Friday Bloomberg headline is a good place to begin this week's CBB: "Emerging Market Currencies Tumble to Record Low in 'Violent' Selloff." From Ye…

  • Weekly Commentary: Lessons of 2004

    Published 18 July 2015 | viewed 0 times

    I've had similar feelings before, though I recall being less apprehensive. The years 1999 and 2007 are etched upon my mind. The bustling of automobiles…

  • Broken

    Published 11 July 2015 | viewed 0 times

    The Shanghai Composite rallied 10% this week, enjoying the "biggest two-day rebound since 2008." Friday saw Germany's DAX surge 2.9%. French, Spanish and Italian equities…

  • The Triad

    Published 04 July 2015 | viewed 0 times

    So how big of a deal is the Triad of Turmoil unfolding in Greece, China and Puerto Rico? Thus far, general contagion has been minimal.…

  • Coming Home

    Published 20 June 2015 | viewed 0 times

    My Mac is on a moving truck somewhere between Pittsburgh and Eugene. Moving cross-country entails some work. But it's exciting to be returning home after…

  • Just The Facts

    Published 05 June 2015 | viewed 0 times

    My apologies. I had commitments today and was unable to find the time to write. For the Week: The S&P500 declined 0.7% (up 1.6% y-t-d),…

  • Out of Thin Air

    Published 29 May 2015 | viewed 0 times

    In its basic form, Credit is someone's promise to pay "money" at some point in the future. Credit instruments are an "IOU." Importantly, new Credit/"IOUs"…

  • Paying for the Past: Insight from Lindsey, Fisher and Greenspan

    Published 22 May 2015 | viewed 0 times

    The Peterson International Institute for International Economics this week held it's sixth annual "Fiscal Summit," a wide-ranging and critical discussion of issues facing our nation.…

  • Today's New Paradigm

    Published 15 May 2015 | viewed 0 times

    As an analyst of Bubbles, I've grown convinced of some things: First, it's vital to recognize Bubble distortions early before they become deeply ingrained in…

  • The End is Near!

    Published 08 May 2015 | viewed 0 times

    Bill Gross penned another interesting commentary, "A Sense of an Ending." The title comes from a Julian Barnes novel, of which Gross pulls the following…