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Doug Noland

Doug Noland

Credit Bubble Bulletin

Contributor since: 26 Jan 2015


I just wrapped up 25 years (persevering) as a "professional bear." My lucky break came in late-1989, when I was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco. Working as a short-side trader, analyst and portfolio manager during the great nineties bull market - for one of the most brilliant individuals I've met - was an exciting, demanding and, in the end, a grueling and absolutely invaluable learning experience. Later in the nineties, I had stints at Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners. In January 1999, I began my 16 year run with PrudentBear, working as strategist and portfolio manager with David Tice in Dallas until the bear funds were sold in December 2008.

  • Belly of the Beast

    Published 06 May 2017 | viewed 0 times

    We're at an important juncture for the global Bubble. There are growing divergences and anomalies. Market signals are increasingly conflicting and confounding: European equities in…

  • Unsound Finance

    Published 29 April 2017 | viewed 0 times

    With Emanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen moving on to next Sunday's (May 7) runoff French presidential election, first-round results proved right in line with…

  • Liquidity Supernova and the Big Ugly Flaw

    Published 22 April 2017 | viewed 0 times

    April 21 - Reuters (Vikram Subhedar): "The $1 trillion of financial assets that central banks in Europe and Japan have bought so far this year…

  • 'Risk Off' Making Some Headway

    Published 15 April 2017 | viewed 0 times

    Global "Risk Off" has been making some headway. This week saw ten-year Treasury yields drop 15 bps to 2.23%, the low since the week following…

  • Just the Facts

    Published 08 April 2017 | viewed 0 times

    For the Week: The S&P500 slipped 0.3% (up 5.2% y-t-d), while the Dow was about unchanged (up 4.5%). The Utilities added 0.3% (up 5.3%). The…

  • Q1: Sure Bets That Weren't

    Published 01 April 2017 | viewed 0 times

    An intriguing first quarter. The year began with bullish exuberance for the Trump policy agenda. With the GOP finally in control of Washington, there was…

  • Discussions on the Fed Put

    Published 25 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

    Market focus this week turned to troubled healthcare legislation, with the GOP Friday pulling the vote on the repeal of Obamacare. This "Republican Catastrophe" (Drudge…

  • Another Missed Opportunity

    Published 18 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

    March 16 - Financial Times (Robin Wigglesworth, Joe Rennison and Nicole Bullock): "When Romeo impatiently hankered after Juliet, the sage friar Lawrence dispensed some valuable…

  • Unparalleled Credit and Global Yields

    Published 11 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

    New Fed Q4 Z.1 Credit and flow data was out this week. For the first time since 2007, annual Total Non-Financial Debt (NFD) growth exceeded…

  • Reality vs. The Neutral Rate

    Published 04 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

    How about a cursory look at recent economic data: February's 57.7 ISM Manufacturing reading was the strongest since August 2014. New Orders at 65.1 matched…

  • Risk On/Risk Off Face-off

    Published 25 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

    The DJIA rose 11 straight sessions ("longest streak since the Reagan administration") to end the week at a record 20,822. The S&P500 gained 0.7% this…

  • China Credit and Global Inflationary Dynamics

    Published 18 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

    February 14 - Bloomberg: "China added more credit last month than the equivalent of Swedish or Polish economic output, revving up growth and supporting prices…

  • Bubbles, Money and the VIX

    Published 11 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

    February 10 - Financial Times (John Authers): "The Importance of Bubbles That Did Not Burst:" "Is there really such a thing as a market bubble?…

  • The Wrath

    Published 04 February 2017 | viewed 0 times

    It's not the first time that a non-farm payrolls rally wiped away inklings of market anxiety. Coming early in the month - and on Fridays…

  • A Dubious Monetary Backdrop

    Published 28 January 2017 | viewed 0 times

    Now that was one eventful week. President Trump wasted not a minute in making good on a series of campaign promises. A bevy of executive…

  • Just the Facts

    Published 21 January 2017 | viewed 0 times

    My sincere apologies. I'll be back with a complete CBB next week. doug For the Week: The S&P500 was little changed (up 1.5% y-t-d), while…

  • Off to an Interesting Start

    Published 14 January 2017 | viewed 0 times

    It's been only two weeks, but 2017 is off to an interesting start. It's certainly quite a contrast to last year's "worst market start in…

  • Just the Facts

    Published 07 January 2017 | viewed 0 times

    For the Week: The S&P500 gained 1.7% (up 18.5% y-o-y), and the Dow rose 1.0% (up 22.1%). The Utilities added 0.3% (up 13.5%). The Banks…

  • 2016 Year in Review

    Published 31 December 2016 | viewed 0 times

    When looking back on a year, it's only natural that events later in the year receive added emphasis. The DJIA made it within 23 points…

  • Renzi Falls, Markets Rise

    Published 10 December 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Italian bank stocks (FTSE Italia bank index) declined a modest 2.3% Monday on the back of Sunday's resounding defeat of Italian Prime Minister Renzi's political…