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Doug Noland

Doug Noland

Credit Bubble Bulletin

Contributor since: 26 Jan 2015


I just wrapped up 25 years (persevering) as a "professional bear." My lucky break came in late-1989, when I was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco. Working as a short-side trader, analyst and portfolio manager during the great nineties bull market - for one of the most brilliant individuals I've met - was an exciting, demanding and, in the end, a grueling and absolutely invaluable learning experience. Later in the nineties, I had stints at Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners. In January 1999, I began my 16 year run with PrudentBear, working as strategist and portfolio manager with David Tice in Dallas until the bear funds were sold in December 2008.

  • Just the Facts - Back Next Week ...

    Published 05 March 2016 | viewed 0 times

    ... For another acutely unstable market week: The S&P500 jumped 2.7% (down 2.2% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 2.2% (down 2.4%). The Utilities were up…

  • Just the Facts

    Published 27 February 2016 | viewed 0 times

    The S&P500 gained 1.6% (down 4.7% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 1.5% (down 4.5%). The Utilities were little changed (up 6.5%). The Banks increased 1.3%…

  • Crisis Management

    Published 20 February 2016 | viewed 0 times

    The current global backdrop remains alarming and, especially on bad days, darn right frightening. Yet as a macro analyst of Credit, money and the markets,…

  • The Global Bubble

    Published 13 February 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Credit is not innately good or bad. Simplistically, productive Credit is constructive, while non-productive Credit is inevitably problematic. This crucial distinction tends to be masked…

  • The Adjustment Cycle

    Published 06 February 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Crude has rallied about 5% off of last month's lows. The Brazilian real closed Friday at 3.90, having posted a decent rally from the January…

  • About Resuscitation and Reinstatement

    Published 30 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

    "Shock and awe" is not quite what it used to be. It still carries a punch, especially for traders long the Japanese yen or short…

  • Draghi Ready to Fight

    Published 23 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

    A few Friday Bloomberg headlines: "Asian Stocks Jump by Most in Four Months on Stimulus Speculation;" "Japanese Stocks Surge by Most in Four Months as…

  • Cracks at the Core of the Core

    Published 16 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

    January 15 - Bloomberg (Matthew Boesler): "The U.S. economy should continue to grow faster than its potential this year, supporting further interest-rate increases by the…

  • Issues 2016

    Published 09 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

    January 8 - CNBC (Ritika Shah): "Billionaire investor Mark Cuban is 'doing nothing' about the market sell-off. In his latest note to his 'dusters' --…

  • 2015 Year in Review

    Published 02 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

    The year 2015 was extraordinary. Incredibly, despite powerful confirmation of the bursting global Bubble thesis, market optimism remained deeply entrenched. All leading strategists surveyed in…

  • Plausible Bubbles Abound

    Published 19 December 2015 | viewed 0 times

    They finally did it - 25 bps, for the first rate increase since 2004. Surely it's the most dovish Fed "tightening" ever. Indeed, it was…

  • The Precipice

    Published 12 December 2015 | viewed 0 times

    Global markets have found themselves again at the precipice. My sense is that everyone's numb - literally dazed and confused from prolonged Monetary Disorder and…

  • The Cult of Draghi

    Published 05 December 2015 | viewed 0 times

    Friday's 370-point surge in the DJIA quickly erased memories of the previous day's rough session throughout global financial markets. It's worth noting, however, that the…

  • Monetary Fiasco

    Published 21 November 2015 | viewed 0 times

    All great monetary fiascos are forged upon a foundation of misperceptions and flawed premises. There's always an underlying disturbance in money and Credit masked by…

  • Risk Off?

    Published 15 November 2015 | viewed 0 times

    The "Granddaddy of All Bubbles" thesis rests upon the view that the world is in the midst of the precarious grand finale of a multi-decade…

  • Irreversibly Broken and Dysfunctional

    Published 07 November 2015 | viewed 0 times

    Bloomberg: "The October Jobs Report Gives Fed Officials a Green Light to Raise Rates." With global "risk on" back in full swing, the focus of…

  • Developing or Developed?

    Published 31 October 2015 | viewed 0 times

    October 30 - BloombergView (By Matthew A. Winkler): "Ignore China's Bears: There's a bull running right past China bears, and it's leading the world's second-largest…

  • Hobson's Choice

    Published 24 October 2015 | viewed 0 times

    More than two months have passed since the August "flash crash." Fragilities illuminated during that bout of market turmoil still reverberate. Sure, global markets have…

  • Look Back in Anger

    Published 17 October 2015 | viewed 0 times

    October 16 - Wall Street Journal (Alan S. Blinder and Mark Zandi): "Don't Look Back in Anger at Bailouts and Stimulus... Logic dictates that the…

  • Courage to Print

    Published 10 October 2015 | viewed 0 times

    Dr. Bernanke has referred to understanding the forces behind the Great Depression as the "Holy Grail of Economics." I believe understanding the ongoing Bubble period…