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Doug Noland

Doug Noland

Credit Bubble Bulletin

Contributor since: 26 Jan 2015


I just wrapped up 25 years (persevering) as a "professional bear." My lucky break came in late-1989, when I was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco. Working as a short-side trader, analyst and portfolio manager during the great nineties bull market - for one of the most brilliant individuals I've met - was an exciting, demanding and, in the end, a grueling and absolutely invaluable learning experience. Later in the nineties, I had stints at Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners. In January 1999, I began my 16 year run with PrudentBear, working as strategist and portfolio manager with David Tice in Dallas until the bear funds were sold in December 2008.

  • Trump, Bonds, Peripheries, China and Italy

    Published 03 December 2016 | viewed 0 times

    The trading week saw WTI crude surge 12.2%. The GSCI commodities index jumped 5.8%. Wheat dropped 3.6% and corn fell 3.1%. Italian 10-year yields fell…

  • Revisiting the Global Savings Glut Thesis

    Published 26 November 2016 | viewed 0 times

    "Why is the United States, with the world's largest economy, borrowing heavily on international capital markets--rather than lending, as would seem more natural? What implications…

  • As Exciting as the 1930s

    Published 19 November 2016 | viewed 0 times

    "One trouble with every inflationary creation of credit is that it acts like a delayed time bomb. There is an interval of indefinite and sometimes…

  • What a Week

    Published 12 November 2016 | viewed 0 times

    The S&P500 jumped 2.3% Monday in what appeared growing confidence that Hillary Clinton was on the verge of becoming the next POTUS (buoyed by Director…

  • The Upshot of Inflationism

    Published 05 November 2016 | viewed 0 times

    As a determined analyst, I'm as committed as ever to remaining "fiercely independent." This must at least partially explain why I've tended to consider myself…

  • Peak Monetary Stimulus

    Published 29 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

    October 28 - Bloomberg (Eliza Ronalds-Hannon and Claire Boston): "After all central bankers have done since the financial crisis to prop up bond prices, it…

  • The Latest on China's Mortgage Finance Bubble

    Published 22 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

    It's been a full seven days since a CBB focused on China... Important - confirmation of the thesis - data again this week. October 21…

  • The Perils of a Resurgent China Credit Boom

    Published 15 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

    There's this uneasiness - an eeriness - in the markets; in the world (I'm not touching politics). Seemingly out of nowhere, the U.S. dollar index…

  • Matthew, Near Misses and Flash Crashes

    Published 08 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Clearly, the National Hurricane Center, The Weather Channel, meteorologists and disaster consultants have succumbed to the cult of fear mongering. "Extremely dangerous" Matthew was poised…

  • A Take on Deutsche Bank

    Published 01 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

    September 30 - Wall Street Journal (James Mackintosh): "Lehman failed the way all banks fail: It ran out of cash and liquid assets it could…

  • Like Old Times: Q2 2016 Flow of Funds

    Published 24 September 2016 | viewed 0 times

    The first quarter seems ages ago.  Recall how securities markets fell under significant stress. Global central bankers responded (Pavlovian) with more QE and lower rates.…

  • Risk Off, the BOJ and China

    Published 17 September 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Is a meaningful de-risking/de-leveraging episode possible with global central banks injecting liquidity at the current almost $2.0 TN annualized pace? Thus far, central bankers have…

  • Reversals

    Published 10 September 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Commenting on Friday's jump in global bond yields, a fund manager on Bloomberg Television downplayed the move: "Yields are back to where they were last…

  • Just the Facts

    Published 03 September 2016 | viewed 0 times

    For the Week: The S&P500 added 0.5% (up 6.7% y-t-d), and the Dow increased 0.5% (up 6.1%). The Utilities gained 0.9% (up 14.7%). The Banks…

  • Yellen Unveiling, Jackson Hole 2016

    Published 27 August 2016 | viewed 0 times

    "The Global Financial Crisis and Great Recession posed daunting new challenges for central banks around the world and spurred innovations in the design, implementation, and…

  • The 'Neutral Rate'

    Published 20 August 2016 | viewed 0 times

    "The neutral (or natural) rate of interest is the rate at which real GDP is growing at its trend rate, and inflation is stable. It…

  • Inflation

    Published 13 August 2016 | viewed 0 times

    (Email from reader T.B.) "These various stages of capitalism, or finance, are interesting and descriptive. But I think the progression is rather simply explained as…

  • Updating Government Finance Quasi-Capitalism

    Published 06 August 2016 | viewed 0 times

    I found my thoughts this week returning to Hyman Minsky, financial evolution and Capitalism. Updating my 2013 Government Finance Quasi-Capitalism thesis seemed overdue. "Minsky saw…

  • Bubble Battles

    Published 30 July 2016 | viewed 0 times

    July 29 - Wall Street Journal (Anjani Trivedi): "The Bank of Japan is retreating into some much-needed introspection. And while it prepares to do this,…

  • Sovereign Market Dislocation and Derivatives Turmoil

    Published 09 July 2016 | viewed 0 times

    Seven UK mutual funds thus far have halted withdrawals and/or taken significant write-downs on fund asset values. Combined fund assets are about 20 billion pounds.…