Doug Noland

Credit Bubble Bulletin

Contributor since: 26 Jan 2015

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• Trump, Bonds, Peripheries, China and Italy

  Published 03 December 2016 | viewed 0 times

  The trading week saw WTI crude surge 12.2%. The GSCI commodities index jumped 5.8%. Wheat dropped 3.6% and corn fell 3.1%. Italian 10-year yields fell…

• Revisiting the Global Savings Glut Thesis

  Published 26 November 2016 | viewed 0 times

  "Why is the United States, with the world's largest economy, borrowing heavily on international capital markets--rather than lending, as would seem more natural? What implications…

• As Exciting as the 1930s

  Published 19 November 2016 | viewed 0 times

  "One trouble with every inflationary creation of credit is that it acts like a delayed time bomb. There is an interval of indefinite and sometimes…

• What a Week

  Published 12 November 2016 | viewed 0 times

  The S&P500 jumped 2.3% Monday in what appeared growing confidence that Hillary Clinton was on the verge of becoming the next POTUS (buoyed by Director…

• The Upshot of Inflationism

  Published 05 November 2016 | viewed 0 times

  As a determined analyst, I'm as committed as ever to remaining "fiercely independent." This must at least partially explain why I've tended to consider myself…

• Peak Monetary Stimulus

  Published 29 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

  October 28 - Bloomberg (Eliza Ronalds-Hannon and Claire Boston): "After all central bankers have done since the financial crisis to prop up bond prices, it…

• The Latest on China's Mortgage Finance Bubble

  Published 22 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

  It's been a full seven days since a CBB focused on China... Important - confirmation of the thesis - data again this week. October 21…

• The Perils of a Resurgent China Credit Boom

  Published 15 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

  There's this uneasiness - an eeriness - in the markets; in the world (I'm not touching politics). Seemingly out of nowhere, the U.S. dollar index…

• Matthew, Near Misses and Flash Crashes

  Published 08 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Clearly, the National Hurricane Center, The Weather Channel, meteorologists and disaster consultants have succumbed to the cult of fear mongering. "Extremely dangerous" Matthew was poised…

• A Take on Deutsche Bank

  Published 01 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

  September 30 - Wall Street Journal (James Mackintosh): "Lehman failed the way all banks fail: It ran out of cash and liquid assets it could…

• Like Old Times: Q2 2016 Flow of Funds

  Published 24 September 2016 | viewed 0 times

  The first quarter seems ages ago.  Recall how securities markets fell under significant stress. Global central bankers responded (Pavlovian) with more QE and lower rates.…

• Risk Off, the BOJ and China

  Published 17 September 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Is a meaningful de-risking/de-leveraging episode possible with global central banks injecting liquidity at the current almost $2.0 TN annualized pace? Thus far, central bankers have…

• Reversals

  Published 10 September 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Commenting on Friday's jump in global bond yields, a fund manager on Bloomberg Television downplayed the move: "Yields are back to where they were last…

• Just the Facts

  Published 03 September 2016 | viewed 0 times

  For the Week: The S&P500 added 0.5% (up 6.7% y-t-d), and the Dow increased 0.5% (up 6.1%). The Utilities gained 0.9% (up 14.7%). The Banks…

• Yellen Unveiling, Jackson Hole 2016

  Published 27 August 2016 | viewed 0 times

  "The Global Financial Crisis and Great Recession posed daunting new challenges for central banks around the world and spurred innovations in the design, implementation, and…

• The 'Neutral Rate'

  Published 20 August 2016 | viewed 0 times

  "The neutral (or natural) rate of interest is the rate at which real GDP is growing at its trend rate, and inflation is stable. It…

• Inflation

  Published 13 August 2016 | viewed 0 times

  (Email from reader T.B.) "These various stages of capitalism, or finance, are interesting and descriptive. But I think the progression is rather simply explained as…

• Updating Government Finance Quasi-Capitalism

  Published 06 August 2016 | viewed 0 times

  I found my thoughts this week returning to Hyman Minsky, financial evolution and Capitalism. Updating my 2013 Government Finance Quasi-Capitalism thesis seemed overdue. "Minsky saw…

• Bubble Battles

  Published 30 July 2016 | viewed 0 times

  July 29 - Wall Street Journal (Anjani Trivedi): "The Bank of Japan is retreating into some much-needed introspection. And while it prepares to do this,…

• Sovereign Market Dislocation and Derivatives Turmoil

  Published 09 July 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Seven UK mutual funds thus far have halted withdrawals and/or taken significant write-downs on fund asset values. Combined fund assets are about 20 billion pounds.…