Guy Lerner

Technical Take

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• Investor Sentiment: Looking Ahead

  Published 27 November 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The best way to get more investors to turn more bearish in their outlook is to have lower prices. The sentiment indicators are nowhere near…

• Bond Technicals

  Published 25 November 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Since March, 2011, most market participants have been wrong about the direction of Treasury bonds. Warren Buffet and PIMCO's Bill Gross were the most notable…

• What Was Your Expectation for this Thanksgiving Week?

  Published 23 November 2011 | viewed 0 times

  My expectation was that the market would go higher and bounce back from the previous week's onslaught, and I am sure that was yours as…

• Real Time Recession Indicator

  Published 21 November 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved month over month. However, the index still remains negative. More importantly, my real time recession indicator, which…

• Dollar Index: A Series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows

  Published 16 November 2011 | viewed 0 times

  There is no question that the Dollar Index is in an uptrend, and as stated in this article, this has not been good for equities…

• My Deepest Thoughts on Investor Sentiment

  Published 14 November 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Reader Erik asks a good question regarding investor sentiment. In particular, he wanted to know how bullish investors became during bear market rallies during 2008…

• Investor Sentiment: Another Case of Selling Low and Buying High?

  Published 12 November 2011 | viewed 0 times

  In aggregate, investor sentiment is neutral. The "dumb money" and Rydex market timer continue to get more bullish after missing out on the bulk of…

• SP500 Model to Yield Sell Signal (Likely)

  Published 11 November 2011 | viewed 0 times

  A trend following strategy for the SP500 that utilizes the 40 week moving average and a filter constructed from the trends in gold, CRB Index,…

• Bye, Bye Japan (EWJ)

  Published 09 November 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the i-Shares MSCI Japan Index Fund (symbol: EWJ). The red and black dots are key pivot points, which…

• Going Old School

  Published 09 November 2011 | viewed 0 times

  I know this stuff doesn't mean anything until it does, but did anybody happen to notice that the market's climb over the past 5 days…

• Investor Sentiment: Moving Towards Too Much Bullishness

  Published 06 November 2011 | viewed 0 times

  One thing this market doesn't need is too much bullishness. The lack of bears means that there is little short covering fuel to power a…

• Is it Deja Vu All Over Again?

  Published 04 November 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Back in November, 2010, I wrote that the current tussle in the market "was an epic battle. Force against force. Titan v. titan." Back in…

• Crosscurrents Aplenty

  Published 02 November 2011 | viewed 0 times

  There is a lot of noise out there and the wide swings in the market are reflective of that fact. There is a lot of…

• Dollar Index: Technicals and Trading Model Remain Bullish

  Published 01 November 2011 | viewed 0 times

  About 1 month ago, I presented my Dollar trading model. This is a simple strategy, utilizing monthly charts of the Dollar Index. The entry signal…

• A SP500 Model Yields Buy Signal

  Published 31 October 2011 | viewed 0 times

  A trend following strategy for the SP500 that utilizes the 40 week moving average and a filter constructed from the trends in gold, CRB Index,…

• Investor Sentiment: The Best Gains are Behind Us

  Published 30 October 2011 | viewed 0 times

  I am not going to say I told you so because honestly, I had no knowledge of the current outcome. All I know is that…

• But This One Did!

  Published 28 October 2011 | viewed 0 times

  This one is for all the assholes out there who only expect winning trades. Last Thursday, I highlighted the gold mining sector and stated that…

• Ehh, This Did Not Turnout Well

  Published 28 October 2011 | viewed 0 times

  My great set up in bonds didn't turnout all that well. See figure 1, a daily chart of the i-Shares Lehman 2o plus Year Treasury…

• No Apologies for This!

  Published 28 October 2011 | viewed 0 times

  On August 9th, I made the call: "this is a bear market". Obviously, with the NASDAQ 100 nearing cyclical highs, the notion of a bear…

• TLT: Another Great Set-up

  Published 25 October 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The last time I identified a "great set up" it was in the Market Vectors Gold Miners (symbol: GDX). This was only a couple of…