Guy Lerner

Technical Take

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• Inflation Pressures Remain

  Published 19 June 2009 | viewed 2,777 times

  Whether real or perceived, inflationary pressures are a headwind for equities. Data out this week shows year over year changes in both CPI and PPI…

• The 4 C's And 1 B

  Published 17 June 2009 | viewed 4,174 times

  I came across this quote from Professor Mark J. Perry of the Carpe Diem blog. I have often thought similar things. Dr. Perry writes: "Bottom…

• How Will We Know The Secular Trend Change In 10 Year Treasury Yields Is For Real?

  Published 15 June 2009 | viewed 3,216 times

  I am on record stating that yields on the 10 year Treasury bond will move higher over the next 12 months, and this will represent…

• Investor Sentiment: You Have To Believe

  Published 14 June 2009 | viewed 3,055 times

  The "Dumb Money" indicator is shown in figure 1. The "Dumb Money" indicator looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investors…

• Anatomy Of A Top

  Published 10 June 2009 | viewed 4,688 times

  One of the major themes that I have been highlighting on this blog since its inception 6 months ago is the potential for a secular…

• The LEI, SP500, And 10 Month Moving Average

  Published 09 June 2009 | viewed 4,668 times

  Over the past month I have highlighted the strategy attributed to Mebane Faber. It is a simple but elegant strategy that probably gets more merit…

• EWJ And The USDJPY

  Published 05 June 2009 | viewed 3,201 times

  I would like to explore the relationship between the i-Shares MSCI Japan Index Fund (symbol: EWJ) and the US Dollar Japanese Yen (symbol: USDJPY) cross…

• Question: What Does The Bullish Signal From The Coppock Guide Mean? Answer: Absolutely Nothing!

  Published 02 June 2009 | viewed 4,470 times

  I am seeing several articles in the main stream press and blogosphere regarding the "bullish signal" given by a technical indicator known as the Coppock…

• Investor Sentiment: Intent On Crushing The Bears

  Published 31 May 2009 | viewed 4,127 times

  There is no meaningful difference in the "Dumb Money" and "Smart Money" indicators from last week. The "dumb money" is extremely bullish, and their persistence…

• 5 Reasons To Be Bullish On Gold

  Published 29 May 2009 | viewed 4,578 times

  Before getting to our analysis, let me first state that I hate snappy titles like the one I have used for this article. You know,…

• 10 Year Treasury Yields: Price Action Confirms Secular Trend Change

  Published 27 May 2009 | viewed 4,833 times

  A monthly close over 3.432% confirms the secular trend change in the 10 year Treasury bond that I have been expecting and writing about for…

• Investor Sentiment: A Widening Divergence

  Published 25 May 2009 | viewed 3,770 times

  For the US equities market, we see a widening divergence between the "Smart Money" and the "Dumb Money" indicators. The "dumb money" has maintained its…

• Inflation Expectations To Pressure Equities

  Published 22 May 2009 | viewed 3,103 times

  This is a headwind for equities that has started to pop up over the past couple of weeks. Yet, it has taken years to ferment…

• Gold: Still On The Launching Pad

  Published 21 May 2009 | viewed 4,372 times

  I last wrote about gold on April 30, 2009. In that article, I stated that gold was on the launching pad. Something big was going…

• Barron's Weighs In On Treasury Yields (Again!)

  Published 19 May 2009 | viewed 3,515 times

  This is the second cover story in 5 months for Barron's on the bursting of the bubble in Treasury yields. I have been closely following…

• Investor Sentiment: Is More Bulls A Good Thing?

  Published 17 May 2009 | viewed 3,014 times

  Although the S&P500 lost 4.9% for the week, the bullish contingent actually grew stronger. This can be seen in the "Dumb Money" indicator shown in…

• More Headwinds To Worry About

  Published 12 May 2009 | viewed 4,935 times

  On the way into the office this morning, I was listening to CNBC radio on Sirius Satellite. In that 7 minute drive, I think I…

• Investor Sentiment: It Takes Bulls To Make A Bull Market

  Published 11 May 2009 | viewed 3,563 times

  The "Dumb Money" indicator now shows that there are too many bulls. From a contrarian perspective, one would think that this is bearish for prices…

• Bursting Of The Bond Bubble: Not So Fast

  Published 08 May 2009 | viewed 4,053 times

  The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond has spiked 10% in the past two weeks, and many are now jumping on the "bonds are…

• Bear Market Rally Or New Bull?

  Published 06 May 2009 | viewed 5,124 times

  Since the equity markets bottomed on March 9, I have always been very careful to point out that the current rally is a bear market…