Guy Lerner

Technical Take

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• Both the "Smart Money" and "Dumb Money" Became More Bullish in Their Outlook Last Week

  Published 16 February 2009 | viewed 5,732 times

  This is what one would expect from the "smart money" - lower prices bringing out more bulls. The "smart money" refers to those investors and…

• Investor Sentiment: Waiting For Our Pitch

  Published 25 January 2009 | viewed 3,581 times

  The "dumb money" sentiment indicator remains neutral on the equity markets, and the "smart money" remains bearish. It should be noted that this is the…

• Gold: Relative Performance v. Currencies

  Published 23 January 2009 | viewed 3,293 times

  The last time I looked at gold was on January 2, 2009. Gold had closed above its "simple 10 month moving average and above a…

• Investor Sentiment: Same Story, New Week

  Published 19 January 2009 | viewed 4,252 times

  The "dumb money" sentiment indicator remains neutral on the equity markets, and the "smart money" has turned more bearish. It should be noted that this…

• The Dow 30 And The Last Man Standing

  Published 16 January 2009 | viewed 5,007 times

  Take about 20 minutes and review the charts of the component stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Index. The financials (AXP, BAC, C,…

• Maybe The Bond Market Is Right

  Published 15 January 2009 | viewed 5,540 times

  In a previous post on long term Treasury bonds, I reviewed some of the technical factors that have me bearish. "So it is highly likely,…

• What Is It Going To Take?

  Published 13 January 2009 | viewed 4,326 times

  What is it going to take before we see a bottom in stocks leading to a new bull market? Time. Time is the only thing…

• Investor Sentiment: Sell Strength (Again!)

  Published 11 January 2009 | viewed 4,050 times

  Investor Sentiment: January 12, 2009 The "dumb money" and "smart money" sentiment indicators are neutral on the equity markets. While a neutral reading is not…

• Rydex Asset Data: Leveraged Bulls v. Leveraged Bears

  Published 09 January 2009 | viewed 4,840 times

  I have presented a lot of data recently suggesting an intermediate term top for equities, and the weakness in prices this past week seems to…

• Long Term Treasury Bonds: Update

  Published 07 January 2009 | viewed 4,957 times

  I have been bearish on long term Treasury bonds long before it was fashionable, and this past week, Barron's has a cover story on Treasuries…

• Investor Sentiment: Sell Into Strength (Still)

  Published 04 January 2009 | viewed 3,732 times

  This is the fourth week in a row where the "dumb money" is neutral and the "smart money" is bearish, and this is not a…

• Investor Sentiment: Sell Into Strength

  Published 29 December 2008 | viewed 5,199 times

  This is the third week in a row where the "dumb money" is neutral and the "smart money" is bearish, and this is not a…

• When Can We Expect A Sustainable Price Move?

  Published 26 December 2008 | viewed 6,420 times

  Most market participants seem to focus on picking that elusive bottom. You here it on CNBC all the time and just about everywhere you go…

• Key Price Levels: December 22, 2008

  Published 22 December 2008 | viewed 4,773 times

  Despite the sentiment picture (which is not supportive of higher prices), the price action remains sluggishly fabulous. The QQQQ (NASDAQ 100 proxy) and IWM (Russell…

• Investor Sentiment Is Neutral

  Published 21 December 2008 | viewed 3,545 times

  With the "dumb money" neutral and the "smart money" bearish on equities, it is unlikely that equity prices will gain much traction in the coming…

• A Slightly Different Take On Gold

  Published 17 December 2008 | viewed 4,680 times

  The fundamental reasons for higher gold prices have been brought to the fore this past week as the Federal Reserve has pulled out all the…

• Investor Sentiment

  Published 15 December 2008 | viewed 5,519 times

  The "dumb money" or investment sentiment composite indicator (see figure 1, a weekly chart of the S&P500) looks for extremes in the data from 4…

• Key Price Levels To Watch

  Published 08 December 2008 | viewed 4,073 times

  In the article "Bull Factor: Reversal Of Price Failures", I spoke of key levels where buying and selling would most likely take place. A key…

• Long Term Treasury Yields: The Next Bubble?

  Published 04 December 2008 | viewed 5,256 times

  In a recent post, I suggested that long term treasury yields had the technical characteristics of an asset class where a long term secular trend…

• The Dollar Breaks Out, So Buy Gold

  Published 13 August 2008 | viewed 5,669 times

  See figure 1 a monthly chart of the Dollar Index. Figure 1. Dollar Index / Monthly Last week when I was reviewing the monthly charts,…