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Guy Lerner

Guy Lerner

Technical Take

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010


Guy M. Lerner is the editor and founder of The Technical Take blog.

  • Both the "Smart Money" and "Dumb Money" Became More Bullish in Their Outlook Last Week

    Published 16 February 2009 | viewed 5,659 times

    This is what one would expect from the "smart money" - lower prices bringing out more bulls. The "smart money" refers to those investors and…

  • Investor Sentiment: Waiting For Our Pitch

    Published 25 January 2009 | viewed 3,493 times

    The "dumb money" sentiment indicator remains neutral on the equity markets, and the "smart money" remains bearish. It should be noted that this is the…

  • Gold: Relative Performance v. Currencies

    Published 23 January 2009 | viewed 3,213 times

    The last time I looked at gold was on January 2, 2009. Gold had closed above its "simple 10 month moving average and above a…

  • Investor Sentiment: Same Story, New Week

    Published 19 January 2009 | viewed 4,182 times

    The "dumb money" sentiment indicator remains neutral on the equity markets, and the "smart money" has turned more bearish. It should be noted that this…

  • The Dow 30 And The Last Man Standing

    Published 16 January 2009 | viewed 4,930 times

    Take about 20 minutes and review the charts of the component stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Index. The financials (AXP, BAC, C,…

  • Maybe The Bond Market Is Right

    Published 15 January 2009 | viewed 5,446 times

    In a previous post on long term Treasury bonds, I reviewed some of the technical factors that have me bearish. "So it is highly likely,…

  • What Is It Going To Take?

    Published 13 January 2009 | viewed 4,255 times

    What is it going to take before we see a bottom in stocks leading to a new bull market? Time. Time is the only thing…

  • Investor Sentiment: Sell Strength (Again!)

    Published 11 January 2009 | viewed 3,979 times

    Investor Sentiment: January 12, 2009 The "dumb money" and "smart money" sentiment indicators are neutral on the equity markets. While a neutral reading is not…

  • Rydex Asset Data: Leveraged Bulls v. Leveraged Bears

    Published 09 January 2009 | viewed 4,740 times

    I have presented a lot of data recently suggesting an intermediate term top for equities, and the weakness in prices this past week seems to…

  • Long Term Treasury Bonds: Update

    Published 07 January 2009 | viewed 4,880 times

    I have been bearish on long term Treasury bonds long before it was fashionable, and this past week, Barron's has a cover story on Treasuries…

  • Investor Sentiment: Sell Into Strength (Still)

    Published 04 January 2009 | viewed 3,671 times

    This is the fourth week in a row where the "dumb money" is neutral and the "smart money" is bearish, and this is not a…

  • Investor Sentiment: Sell Into Strength

    Published 29 December 2008 | viewed 5,124 times

    This is the third week in a row where the "dumb money" is neutral and the "smart money" is bearish, and this is not a…

  • When Can We Expect A Sustainable Price Move?

    Published 26 December 2008 | viewed 6,350 times

    Most market participants seem to focus on picking that elusive bottom. You here it on CNBC all the time and just about everywhere you go…

  • Key Price Levels: December 22, 2008

    Published 22 December 2008 | viewed 4,671 times

    Despite the sentiment picture (which is not supportive of higher prices), the price action remains sluggishly fabulous. The QQQQ (NASDAQ 100 proxy) and IWM (Russell…

  • Investor Sentiment Is Neutral

    Published 21 December 2008 | viewed 3,476 times

    With the "dumb money" neutral and the "smart money" bearish on equities, it is unlikely that equity prices will gain much traction in the coming…

  • A Slightly Different Take On Gold

    Published 17 December 2008 | viewed 4,613 times

    The fundamental reasons for higher gold prices have been brought to the fore this past week as the Federal Reserve has pulled out all the…

  • Investor Sentiment

    Published 15 December 2008 | viewed 5,407 times

    The "dumb money" or investment sentiment composite indicator (see figure 1, a weekly chart of the S&P500) looks for extremes in the data from 4…

  • Key Price Levels To Watch

    Published 08 December 2008 | viewed 3,988 times

    In the article "Bull Factor: Reversal Of Price Failures", I spoke of key levels where buying and selling would most likely take place. A key…

  • Long Term Treasury Yields: The Next Bubble?

    Published 04 December 2008 | viewed 5,189 times

    In a recent post, I suggested that long term treasury yields had the technical characteristics of an asset class where a long term secular trend…

  • The Dollar Breaks Out, So Buy Gold

    Published 13 August 2008 | viewed 5,583 times

    See figure 1 a monthly chart of the Dollar Index. Figure 1. Dollar Index / Monthly Last week when I was reviewing the monthly charts,…