Guy Lerner

Technical Take

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• Investor Sentiment: Uh - Oh!

  Published 07 August 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The market has taken a nasty hit this past week, and as expected, investors have turned bearish. Lower prices tend to do that. Unfortunately, investors…

• Key Levels: SPY, QQQ, XLF

  Published 03 August 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The price action the past several weeks has been poor, and key price levels are now being challenged and violated. Key price levels are the…

• Investor Sentiment

  Published 01 August 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The measures of investor sentiment have changed little week over week, and with the debt ceiling circus dominating the news, investors seem reluctant to make…

• Investor Sentiment: Remember This

  Published 23 July 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Investor sentiment remains without change week over week. One would think that the markets are being held captive to the news flow coming out of…

• And the Answer Is...

  Published 22 July 2011 | viewed 0 times

  And the answer is....the Dollar Index is going lower! Figure 1 is a weekly figure of the US Dollar Index. This is the same graph…

• This Passes for Market Analysis?

  Published 21 July 2011 | viewed 0 times

  I usually don't care about such things as there is so much bad market analysis out there, but when the "insight" is so egregious, I…

• Asset Allocation Strategy: Buy and Hold Bonds

  Published 20 July 2011 | viewed 0 times

  This is the second installment of our series on asset allocation. The first article was on buy and hold SP500, where we learned that risks…

• Who is Going to Save the Day?

  Published 19 July 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Most market watchers would agree that a sustainable market advance should have quality leadership. The banking sector generally is a pretty good candidate to provide…

• Another Warning Sign

  Published 18 July 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Our previous warning of a likely top in the i-Shares MSCI Emerging Market Index Fund (symbol: EEM) remains intact. Now we can add i-Shares FTSE…

• Investor Sentiment: Dullsville

  Published 16 July 2011 | viewed 0 times

  This week the sentiment indicators are stuck in neutral ground, which makes sense considering investors can't always be extremely bearish or bullish. 4 weeks ago…

• Asset Allocation Strategy: Buy and Hold SP500

  Published 15 July 2011 | viewed 0 times

  This will be the first in a series of articles on asset allocation. It is no secret that tactical asset allocation is my preferred framework…

• Equities: A Floor Has Been Set

  Published 14 July 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The oversold bounce that occurred 3 weeks ago when investor sentiment was extremely bearish did one very important thing: it put a floor under this…

• Dollar Index: Constructive, but...

  Published 12 July 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the Dollar Index (symbol: $DXY), and it is the same chart I have been showing for weeks. Not…

• Investor Sentiment: What do you Expect?

  Published 11 July 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Hey, what do you expect? Those knuckleheads* who were selling and calling for the end of the world 4 weeks ago are now chasing prices…

• Equities: What's Next?

  Published 06 July 2011 | viewed 0 times

  I define the price cycle as the path that prices take from low to high and back again, and I use investor sentiment to help…

• Gold: Still Bullish, but Slightly Frustrated

  Published 05 July 2011 | viewed 0 times

  These are the kinds of things that frustrate me but are just a part of trading and investing. I last looked at gold on June…

• Hold the Phone!

  Published 05 July 2011 | viewed 0 times

  On June 23, 2011, I stated that my crude oil model would likely give a sell signal at the end of the month. Then again,…

• Investor Sentiment: Pullbacks Will Be Bought

  Published 03 July 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The easy part was the bounce. The hard part was knowing that the SP500 was going to gain nearly 5.5% in one week. Did you…

• Has Anything Changed?

  Published 01 July 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The easy part was recognizing that we had an oversold market with extremes in bearish sentiment, which in general is a reliable buy signal. Throw…

• Bond Model Still Positive, Technicals Weak

  Published 30 June 2011 | viewed 0 times

  As QE2 comes to a close, so does the Federal Reserve's direct involvement in the Treasury market. Without the buyer of last resort, investors, not…