Guy Lerner

Technical Take

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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Biography

• Investor Sentiment: Smart Money Turning Bearish

  Published 15 November 2009 | viewed 6,325 times

  After 15 weeks of being neutral, the "smart money" indicator has turned towards a more bearish reading. The "dumb money" indicator remains in the extreme…

• 3 Breadth Charts You Won't See Anywhere Else

  Published 12 November 2009 | viewed 5,388 times

  Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500 (symbol: $INX). The indicator in the bottom panel comes from mathematician James Meikka. Meikka developed a…

• On Market Timing

  Published 09 November 2009 | viewed 3,829 times

  Everyone tries to time the market to some degree. Just the acts of buying and selling are exercises in market timing. We want the best…

• Investment Sentiment: Changes Within The Indicators

  Published 08 November 2009 | viewed 3,405 times

  Every week that I put together these comments, I pay great attention to the words that I write. Last week's key points were: 1) the…

• Rydex Market Timers: Extremely Mixed

  Published 06 November 2009 | viewed 2,589 times

  Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500 with the amount of assets in the Rydex Money Market Fund in the lower panel. Figure…

• Whats Wrong With Consumer Confidence?

  Published 03 November 2009 | viewed 3,901 times

  This is an interesting video taken from CNBC's "Squawk On The Street". The show's host, Mark Haines, is incredulous that last Tuesday's consumer confidence number…

• Dollar Technicals

  Published 01 November 2009 | viewed 4,098 times

  Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the US Dollar Index (symbol: $DXY). The pink labeled price bars within the ovals are positive divergence bars.…

• Investor Sentiment: Option #3

  Published 31 October 2009 | viewed 3,614 times

  Since October 10, I have been singing a new tune and warning that "there is probably greater risk of a market down draft now than…

• Modified Faber Model: Some Insight

  Published 30 October 2009 | viewed 3,813 times

  As the prior post shows, we can improve a simple moving average strategy by going to cash when the trends in gold, crude oil, and…

• Modified Faber Model: Sell Signal

  Published 29 October 2009 | viewed 4,452 times

  Back on June 29, 2009, I presented research that improved the efficiency of the Faber market timing model for the S&P500 by some 50%. By…

• Rydex Market Timers: Reminds Me Of My Own Trading

  Published 28 October 2009 | viewed 2,720 times

  In a show of doing the same thing over and over again or as I like to call it - hitting your head on the…

• Rydex Market Timers: Buying The Dip

  Published 27 October 2009 | viewed 3,742 times

  The Rydex market timer, as a representative sample of investors, was buying yesterday's sell off. Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500 with…

• Treasury Yields: Observations

  Published 27 October 2009 | viewed 3,198 times

  The only asset moving up over the last week has been longer term Treasury yields. This is odd especially in the face of equity market…

• Rydex Market Timers: All In (Again!)

  Published 25 October 2009 | viewed 4,183 times

  The Rydex market timers are all in again. The last time I used those words was on September 25, which marked a short term high…

• Investor Sentiment: Consistency And Credibility

  Published 24 October 2009 | viewed 3,127 times

  This week's comments are about why I continue to present the same data on investor sentiment week after week. Some readers have suggested that this…

• Shhh! TIPs Breakout!!

  Published 20 October 2009 | viewed 6,327 times

  I last mentioned Treasury Inflation Protected Securities or TIPs in an article written on September 10 entitled, "If You Don't Like 'em, Then Don't Trade…

• Investor Sentiment: I Am Still Singing That Song

  Published 18 October 2009 | viewed 3,422 times

  Last week I was changing my tune. This week's tune is the same old song: "Equities are for renting not owning at this juncture. I…

• Investor Sentiment: I Am Changing My Tune

  Published 11 October 2009 | viewed 5,196 times

  Since the first weeks of August, 2009, I have stated the following in every weekly summary on equity market sentiment: "Investor sentiment remains extremely bullish.…

• Gold v. Currencies

  Published 05 October 2009 | viewed 3,561 times

  Figure 1 is a concept that I have put forward before, and it is gold's performance relative to a basket of 8 currencies.Those currencies are:…

• Gold: Off The Launching Pad

  Published 05 October 2009 | viewed 3,988 times

  Back on April 30, 2009, when gold was trading at $895 per ounce, I wrote an article suggesting that gold was on the appropriate launching…